\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Event: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) released the first quarterly report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 41.784 billion yuan (year-on-year + 33.44%, month on month + 9.33%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.374 billion yuan (year-on-year - 18.84%, month on month + 5.23%). The company's annual equity distribution in 2021 distributed a cash dividend of 2.50 yuan per share (including tax).
The rising cost of raw materials has put some pressure on the profit side, but the external demand for isocyanate is still strong. The comprehensive tax inclusive price difference of MDI of polyurethane products of 22q1 company is 16000 yuan / ton (year-on-year - 15%, month on month - 3%), TDI price difference is + 24%, month on month + 61%, hard foam polyether price difference is + 49%, month on month + 13%; The comprehensive price difference of petrochemical C3 / C4 platform was - 3% month on month, that of C2 platform was - 23%, and that of TPU, PC and PMMA was + 2%, - 19% and + 3% month on month. Generally speaking, the price boom of the company's main products continued in the first quarter, but the upward price of oil, coal, LPG and other raw materials put some pressure on the price difference, and TDI's price difference performed well affected by the supply side. According to wind, in terms of export, the total export volume of MDI and TDI in the first quarter was at an all-time high. Although there was a year-on-year decline, foreign demand was still strong; From the perspective of production and sales, according to the announcement, the sales volume of 22q1 polyurethane sector was + 3% year-on-year, with a chain comparison of - 3%, the output of petrochemical sector was + 37% year-on-year, with a chain comparison of - 4% (simulating the deduction of LPG trade), and the sales volume of new materials sector was + 28% year-on-year, with a chain comparison of - 8%. To sum up, 22q1 company achieved a gross profit of 8.587 billion yuan, and the expense rate (four fees & taxes) was 5.2% (year-on-year - 2.5pct). (see the following text for detailed data chart)
China's epidemic hoarding stimulates the sales of refrigerators and freezers, and the polyurethane sector is expected to benefit. According to ovicloud and zhongyikang, the sales growth of refrigerators and freezers in March was - 2.7% and + 0.7% respectively year-on-year. In addition, from April 4 to April 10, the sales of offline freezers in Shanghai were + 113.2% year-on-year and + 153.2% year-on-year. The reason is that under the recent repeated epidemic and the dynamic zeroing prevention and control policy, residents tend to purchase refrigerators with larger capacity due to the demand for emergency reserves, resulting in an increase in the sales of refrigerators and freezers. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the apparent consumption of MDI in China in 2021 was 2.08 million tons, accounting for 47% of white goods. Considering the huge disturbance on the supply and logistics side caused by the epidemic (the recent negative operation of MDI devices in Shanghai), and the routine inspection and repair of nearly 1.2 million tons of MDI devices in Asia in May and June, the superposition of the recent exchange rate depreciation may be good for the export of refrigerators and freezers, and the boost of MDI domestic demand in the future is expected. On the other hand, the European natural gas supply crisis caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to alleviate in the short term. According to Tiantian chemical, BASF, if Russia's natural gas supply to Ludwigshafen base in Germany is reduced to less than half of the current demand, the production and operation of the world's largest chemical integration base may be completely stopped. The production capacity of TDI and MDI in Europe accounts for 24% and 27% of the world respectively, second only to China. If the production of isocyanate in Europe is affected, The current situation will lead to sharp price fluctuations, and the company's exports are expected to benefit.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 23.11 billion yuan, 25.70 billion yuan and 28.47 billion yuan, maintaining the Buy-A investment rating.
Risk tip: the price of products or raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
