\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 686 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) )
Quarterly report: 2022.
The new energy business continued to grow rapidly and in large quantities, and the revenue side maintained steady growth in 2022q1
In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.53%, in line with market expectations. ① In 2021, the prosperity of the new energy industry was high, and the company's products and visual solutions were widely used in the new energy industry. There were many new energy signing orders in the early stage, and the large-scale delivery date was entered in the second half of 2021. We judged that the new energy business revenue in 2022q1 achieved a significant increase year-on-year, accounting for 29.48% of the revenue in 2021; ② 3C industry is still the main source of the company's revenue. We judge that the revenue of 2022q1 accounts for more than 50%, and the revenue decreases slightly compared with 2021q1, mainly because more 3C orders are confirmed in 2021q1 from 2020q4, with a high base; ③ In addition, the company actively expanded the overseas markets of semiconductor and automobile industries, strengthened the research and development of new products and product upgrading, and achieved rapid growth in related businesses. Looking forward to 2022, the short-term epidemic has a certain impact on the company's order delivery rhythm, but the annual revenue side is still expected to maintain steady growth.
The decrease of gross profit margin superimposed with the withdrawal of share based payment expenses has led to a certain decline in profitability in 2022q1
In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 63 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.23%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 57 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.60%, and a net sales interest rate of 28.94%, a year-on-year increase of -6.09pct; The net profit margin after deducting non sales was 25.89%, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.59pct, and the profitability decreased significantly. Specifically: 1) gross profit side: the gross profit margin of 2022q1 company's sales was 65.34%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.20pct. We judge that it is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of new energy business revenue with low gross profit margin. 2) Expense side: during 2022q1, the expense rate was 35.75%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.10pct, which was the main reason for the decline of profitability. Among them, the expense rates of sales, management, R & D and finance were + 3.14pct, -0.09pct, + 0.86pct and + 2.19pct respectively year-on-year. The increase in expense rate is mainly due to the fact that the share based payment expense in 2022q1 reached 8.8 million yuan, which has an impact on the expense rate during the period of more than 4pct. If the impact of share based payment expense is deducted, the net profit deducted from non attributable parent company in 2022q1 increased by 24.33% year-on-year. In addition, the company actively reserved personnel for the new energy business. At the end of 2021, the number of sales personnel reached 743, a year-on-year increase of + 50%. The substantial expansion of personnel will have a certain adverse impact on the expense rate in the short term.
Machine vision is Changpo thick snow track, and the company has the conditions for continuous expansion
Thanks to the increase of new infrastructure investment, the acceleration of data center construction, the promotion of manufacturing automation and other factors, the scale of China's machine vision industry will further grow. According to the prediction of China machine vision industry alliance, the market scale of machine vision in China will increase from 18.07 billion yuan in 2021 to 29.6 billion yuan in 2023, with an average annual compound growth rate of 28.0%. Machine vision is a long slope thick snow track. Compared with Kearns and connais, the company's current revenue and profit volume is relatively small and has a large growth space: ① the company has a perfect machine vision hardware and software product line, especially in terms of software, with an independent underlying algorithm library, and the software is expected to become an important focus of the company. ② While consolidating the competitive advantage of 3C electronics industry, the company has gradually expanded its capability circle to new energy, semiconductor, photovoltaic and other fields. Its products have been recognized by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ATL, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Funeng and other global well-known enterprises, and the growth space will be further opened.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the impact of the epidemic, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 376 million yuan (original value 401 million yuan), 516 million yuan (original value 522 million yuan) and 689 million yuan (unchanged), and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 30 / 22 / 21 times respectively. Considering the excellent growth of the company, maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the volume of new energy is less than expected, the profitability is declining, and the expansion of new industries is less than expected.
