\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (601128)
Key investment points
Performance summary: 1. The growth rate of revenue and net profit widened upward and maintained a double-digit high growth: annual revenue + 16% and net profit + 21% year-on-year. It is expected that the company’s interest margin will continue to rise slightly in the fourth quarter, while the credit will maintain a strong growth rate, the company’s annual revenue growth will continue to keep upward, the provision provision provision will remain relatively stable, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company will achieve a high increase of 21%. 2. Calculated single quarter annualized interest margin: slightly upward compared with the third quarter. Using the single quarter revenue / average total assets to approximate the interest margin, the single quarter annualized interest margin in the fourth quarter was 3.31%, a slight increase of 1bp compared with the third quarter, an increase of 21bp compared with the same period last year. 3. Balance sheet: add back the off balance sheet credit assets, and the annual actual credit growth rate was 26%. 4. The proportion of individual loans and operating loans in the total loans increased to the best level in history: 4q operating loans increased by 3.45 billion and 16.2 billion in the whole year, both far exceeding the level in the same period last year. The growth rate and proportion of individual loans and operating loans in total loans increased and widened compared with the third quarter, of which the proportion of individual loans in total loans increased to 61%, and the proportion of operating loans in total loans increased to 40%. 5. Asset quality is maintained at an excellent level. The non-performing rate was low, unchanged at 0.81% month on month, and the risk offset ability remained high, with the appropriation rate of 532% in the fourth quarter.
Investment suggestion: 2021e, 2022e Pb 0.97x/0.87x; PE 8.7 X / 7.4x (rural commercial bank Pb 0.76x / 0.70X; PE 8.0x / 7.2x), the company focuses on local microenterprises, has excellent risk control, and continues to sink channels and broaden the market. The contribution of non local deposits and loans and revenue has gradually increased. It is expected that the continuous sinking in the follow-up region and the merger and reorganization of rural banks will still open the space for non local contribution. Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) the business model is focused, the customer structure continues to be small and scattered, and the asset quality remains at an excellent level. With the stabilization and structural optimization of the interest rate of new loans, the interest margin enters the improvement channel, and the ROA remains above 1%. It is recommended to maintain positive attention.
Note: with the implementation of performance in 21 years, we revised the company’s profit forecast with reference to the express data, and the overall change range is small.
Risk tip: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, and the operating performance is lower than expected.
