\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) release the performance forecast for 2021: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be about 6.6 ~ 7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11% ~ + 27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 5.6 ~ 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16% ~ + 39%. Corresponding to 2021q4, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.316 ~ 2.316 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 36.56% ~ + 140.30% and a month on month increase of + 39.02% ~ + 144.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 1.023 ~ 2.123 billion, and the performance slightly exceeded our expectations.
Q4 independent and GAC Toyota’s wholesale growth was better than the industry as a whole, and their performance exceeded our expectations, mainly due to the rapid recovery of chip shortage + strong cycle of independent and joint venture new vehicles: 1) 2021q4 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) independent brand GAC motor / GAC EA brand achieved wholesale sales of 10300 / 41600 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.81% / + 92.92% and a month on month increase of + 46.79% / + 16.49% respectively, The performance was better than that of the industry as a whole (the overall wholesale sales volume of Q4 passenger car industry was 6.494 million, with a month on month ratio of – 2.72% / + 38.07%, the wholesale sales volume of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy was 5.19 million / 1.322 million, with a year-on-year ratio of – 15.44% / + 142.91% and a month on month ratio of + 36.87% / + 43.08%); Among the major joint venture brands, the wholesale sales volume of Guangfeng / guangben Q4 was 245500 / 231500, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.36% / – 9.28% and a month-on-month increase of + 47.08% / + 30.68%, respectively. The shortage of Guangfeng chips recovered rapidly and led the industry in the same month. 2) In 2021q4, GAC achieved a net profit of RMB 1.023 ~ 2.123 billion after deduction, with a year-on-year increase of + 131.01% ~ + 379.32% and a month on month increase of + 92.37% ~ + 299.13%, which was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of GAC independent / Guangfeng, while the terminal discount was significantly recovered year-on-year. The second generation gs8 / new M8 / Yingbao and other new generation models were launched, boosting the overall sales level, The product structure is improved and the profit of single vehicle is improved; The substantial growth on a month on month basis was mainly due to the faster than expected recovery of the shortage of Japanese brands, especially GAC Toyota chips, and the significant improvement of the production batch on a month on month basis. In addition, GAC continued to strengthen its own cost control to help release its performance.
In 2022, independent / Guangfeng / guangben brand-new models were launched, and the product cycle continued to be strong; Ai’an introduced mixed transformation to improve brand image and market competitiveness, and accelerated the realization of electric intelligent transformation: 1) in 2022, GAC motor brand successively launched yingku and GS4 new generation products after the second generation of heavy models such as gs8 / M8 / Yingbao; Ai’an brand carries out a major upgrade for V / LX, and is equipped with super fast charging / super long life battery technology respectively; Japanese brand fenglanda / Weisa / new hybrid Odyssey / Xingge and other products have been poured into the Chinese market, and the strong product cycle is expected to continue. 2) The mixed reform of e’an is accelerated, introducing the internal mature talent matrix of GAC Research Institute, integrating its assets, introducing strategic investment, attracting external talents by means of equity incentive and employee stock ownership, and improving the overall market competitiveness of the brand.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the launch of GAC motor + GAC ea\’an new model, a new round of product cycle will continue to be launched, and the cycle of Japanese models is strong, which is expected to continue to improve. We raised Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the expectation of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023, from 6.5/9/11 billion yuan to 7.1/94/11.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.8% / + 31.4% / + 24.6% respectively; The corresponding EPS from 2021 to 2023 is 0.69/0.91/1.13 yuan and PE is 21 / 16 / 13 times. For a long time, we still maintain the “buy” rating of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) .
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
