\u3000\u3000 Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) (688166)
Summary:
The company is a rare generic pharmaceutical enterprise with high technical barriers in China. Relying on multiple technical platforms, the company has successfully developed a number of API varieties that occupy a dominant advantage in global supply and arranged a number of potential fields. The company focuses on difficult synthetic varieties, has rich reserve pipelines, and extends to the preparation business. With the continuous production of raised investment projects and the release of production capacity, the company is expected to enter a rapid growth period.
In terms of existing varieties, fenjing products of the company have prominent advantages in global API supply and high market share, and have signed project cooperation sharing agreements with multiple downstream customers, which has the highest contribution to the company's profits. At present, micafungin is just in the stage of rapid commercialization. The downstream demand of caspofungin and anifenin benefits from stable and rapid growth, and the performance safety cushion of the company is sufficient.
Among other varieties, entecavir benefited from centralized mining in China. Although the gross profit margin decreased, the income side increased rapidly. Oseltamivir and everolimus are both varieties with large market space and sufficient potential. Benefiting from the covid-19 epidemic, fondaparinkwai sodium also increased significantly. Due to the rich varieties and fields involved, the company's product structure is more reasonable. At the same time, the company focuses on the global market, and many varieties are sold in European and American regulatory markets, further improving the market space of existing varieties.
In the medium and long term, due to the clear positioning of the company, the good product competition pattern and the different degree of commercialization of various varieties and regions, it will bring a longer life cycle. At the same time, the layout of reserve varieties is rich, and they also have high technical barriers, such as iron and inhalants, which have great market potential.
At present, the company's development is greatly restricted by production capacity. In recent years, the company's capital expenditure has increased, mainly to expand the production capacity of APIs and preparations. We expect that with the gradual release of production capacity, the development of the company is expected to enter a new level with the technical strength and variety resources accumulated over the years. We expect the company to achieve EPS of 0.62, 0.84 and 1.12 yuan / share respectively from 2021 to 2023, with the first coverage and "recommended" investment rating.
Risk warning: the impact of epidemic situation exceeds expectations; The impact of centralized purchase and other policies exceeded expectations; Risk that performance growth is less than expected; Product competition intensifies risk; Risk that the progress of product approval is less than expected; Production safety accident risk; Risk of core product sales falling short of expectations; Product R & D risk; Order fluctuation risk; Macroeconomic downside risks at home and abroad; Stock market systemic risk.
