\u3000\u3000 Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) (600161)
Event: the company announced the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to achieve revenue of 4.108 billion yuan (+ 19.24%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 764 million yuan (+ 19.53%), and net profit not attributable to the parent company of 766 million yuan (+ 22.65%). Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.29 billion yuan (+ 59.26%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 206 million yuan (+ 45.1%). Taking into account the impact of the increase in the equity ratio of Chengdu Rongsheng, a subsidiary of Chengdu Rongsheng in the past 21 years, the year-on-year profit side can refer to the total profit. The total profit in the past 21 years was 1.257 billion yuan (+ 13.78%).
Q4 grew faster than expected in a single quarter. Q4 grew faster than expected in a single quarter. The company's Q3 single quarter growth rate declined and Q4 single quarter growth rate increased significantly in 21 years. It is expected to be related to the time point when the company's terminal delivery revenue is confirmed, and the industry demand and the company's product supply are expected to be relatively stable. Combined with Q3 + Q4, the revenue in the second half of 21 was 2.3 billion yuan, an annual increase (+ 21.7%) over the second half of 2020, maintaining a rapid and stable growth. In 21 years, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 achieved revenue of RMB 847 / 9.64 / 10.1 / 1.29 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 11.8% / 20.9% / - 6.9% / 59.3% in 2020 and 19.9% / 12.7% / 5.0% / 59.3% in 2019. Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 152 / 1.87/2.2/206 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1% / 23.0% / 3.8% / 45.1% in 2020 and 16.0% / 15.4% / 27.2% / 43.1% in 2019.
The logic of doubling the slurry recovery continues to be fulfilled. According to the announcement of the company, 15 pulp stations were newly approved in 21 years, plus 15 pulp stations newly approved in 21 years. At present, the number of pulp stations (including sub stations) of the company is 74. At the beginning of November, Yunnan Province released the plan for the setting of plasma collection stations from 2021 to 2023. There are 19 plasma collection stations in the province, and Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) is expected to be the biggest beneficiary. In addition, the company is expected to continue to be approved pulp stations in Guizhou, Gansu, Hubei, Sichuan and other places. In 2020, the company's slurry collection volume will be about 1710 tons. It will continue to be approved as a slurry station, and the doubling logic of slurry collection volume will continue to be realized.
Human coagulation factor VIII has been approved and the profit per ton of pulp is being realized. According to the announcement, human coagulation factor VIII has been approved, and the trial production of Chengdu Rongsheng Yong'an base has been completed. After the operation of Yong'an blood system in 22 years, the production capacity will be released and new products will be put into operation, and the performance in 22 years is expected to be improved. According to our calculation, the revenue per ton of pulp is expected to increase significantly, and most of it is expected to turn into profits, and the profit per ton of pulp is expected to increase significantly. Other varieties, such as recombinant coagulation factor 8, chromatography static C and human fibrinogen, will be approved for listing in 2023.
Investment suggestion: the current valuation is about 40 billion yuan, the downward space is limited, the growth logic continues to be fulfilled (increase in pulp investment + increase in profit per ton of pulp), and the growth rate in 22 years is expected to increase. 15 newly approved pulp stations in 21 years are expected to contribute to the increment in 22 years. Coagulation factor 8 has been approved, and the profit per ton of pulp is expected to increase from the second half of 22 years. From 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 765 million, RMB 900 million and RMB 1148 million respectively, and the corresponding PE was 52X / 44x / 35x times respectively. The "buy" rating was continued.
Risk tips: safety production risk, product promotion risk less than expected, performance risk, pulp station expansion risk less than expected, and competition risk.
