\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809)
Event:
Recently, the company held a dealer meeting and an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders, and organized online exchanges among investors.
Key investment points:
In 2021, the company achieved the phased goal of leapfrog development. The new chairman took office and continued to promote the promotion of brand value. On January 8, 2022, yuan Qingmao was officially elected chairman of the 8th board of directors of the company. Standing at the new starting point of the 14th five year plan, chairman yuan proposed to seize the victory and pursue the attack, New requirements for promoting the high-quality development of Fenjiu in an all-round way: 1) practice "four focuses (focusing on market structure optimization, product structure optimization, quality improvement and management improvement)" and "four adherences (adhering to enhancing strategic concentration, deeply excavating cultural connotation, deepening state-owned enterprise reform and strengthening risk prevention and control)"; 2) In marketing, "stabilize the basic market and seize the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta"; 3) Plan ahead and make a forward-looking layout of raw wine production capacity and energy storage; 4) Pay close attention to the control of the whole industrial chain and give full play to the process advantages of Fen Liquor.
Blue and white potential energy is continuously released, and the upgrading of product structure is the main focus in the future. Qinghua series is an important starting point for improving the brand value of Fenjiu. In the overall reform policy of "133238" in the next stage, the company focuses on "three indicators (sales index of Qinghua Fenjiu, terminal index of Qinghua 20 and index of Qinghua opinion leader group)". Optimistic about the future, the revival version of blue and white 30 will continue to release the circle effect, and the capacity of blue and white 20 will be steadily expanded to continue to play the leading role of blue and white. Waist Panama and old Baifen continued to strengthen. As a sharp sword soldier in market development and the basic cultivation function of fragrance consumption, Bofen will not change. In the future, on the premise of ensuring the basic market demand and protecting the profits of dealers, the company will appropriately tighten the quota in combination with its own supply capacity. At the same time, the company will comprehensively build a "2 + 2" overall structure, promote the "two wheel drive" of fenpai and Zhuyeqing, strengthen Xinghua village and a series of wine brands, and create a new growth engine.
Continue to focus on the three markets and strengthen the construction of marketing organization from the aspects of top-level design and management level. 1) The large base market continues to consolidate its advantages and do a good job in resource allocation; 2) East China market focuses on resources and strives to continue the high growth rate in recent years; 3) The South China market has increased the selection, optimization and support of businesses to achieve new growth breakthroughs. In terms of organization, on the one hand, it is the top-level design. At the group level, a marketing center and a leading office for marketing reform pilot are set up to realize the coordination of production, supply and marketing. The marketing company establishes an efficiency leading group, and the three key market segments are divided into different groups; On the other hand, the management level has been improved. The structure of 31 provinces and regions + 10 directly subordinate regions has better realized flattening. The company will continue to improve its management ability and make full use of digital tools to better meet the new requirements of the rapid growth stage of national development.
2022 has a promising start, and the company has outstanding advantages under the systematic competition of the industry. Fenjiu is a well deserved fragrance leader with profound brand heritage. After the national reform, the company has made leapfrog improvements in internal management, organization team and marketing system. The leadership is determined to forge ahead and attaches great importance to the high quality of growth. Product structure last time, high-end blue and white wine, old Baifen and light bottle wine Bofen have formed a large volume with outstanding anti risk ability; The market foundation of the large base in the province and around Shanxi is solid, and the expansion momentum outside the province is rapid. At the end of 2021, the channel inventory was at a low level, the product price system and market operation order were at a historical good level, and the dealers were active in making money and preparing goods, laying a solid foundation for a good start in 2022. Continue to be optimistic about the company's dividend in the industry trend and high-quality growth under the improvement of its own operation.
The product structure of the profit forecast and investment rating company has been continuously optimized, with bright spots inside and outside the province, and the long-term growth trend is clear. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.54/6.11/7.88 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 70 / 52 / 41 times respectively. The "buy" rating will be given for the first coverage.
The risk indicates that the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumer demand; Increased market competition leads to increased costs; The expansion or dynamic sales outside the province are less than expected; The sharp fluctuations of the economy caused the price of high-end Baijiu to decline, squeezing the demand for high-end products. Food safety risks.
