\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Key investment points
The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 905-1005 million yuan, a month on month increase of 28.3% – 42.4%; Q4 deduction of non parent net profit of 929-1029 million, with a month on month increase of 44,1% – 59.6%. The production volume is in line with expectations: with the company’s new production line put into operation, the production capacity continues to increase; We expect Q4 to ship about 1 billion square meters. Considering the delayed confirmation of Q3 part of the shipment revenue, Q4 actually confirmed that the shipment is about 1.05 billion square meters. Li Da exceeded expectations: considering that the company’s non diaphragm business contributed a profit of about RMB 30 million, calculated according to the shipping caliber of 1.05 billion Ping, the company’s Q4 single Ping profit reached RMB 0.9-1.0/ping, a significant increase month on month; Mainly because the diaphragm is in short supply, the company’s selling price rose from November to December. Throughout the year, the company shipped about 3 billion square meters, with a single average net profit of more than 0.85 yuan / square meter.
Wet diaphragm volume and profit increased, and dry method contributed a new increment of performance
Wet method: the price increases and the cost decreases, and the single average profit is expected to exceed 1 yuan / square meter. Price side: the capacity of high-quality equipment restricts the expansion of production. According to our calculation, there will be a supply-demand gap of 990 million square meters in the global lithium battery diaphragm in 22 years. The supply of high-quality capacity exceeds the demand, and the price rise of diaphragm will gradually spread; Cost side: on-line coating volume, localization of raw materials instead of superimposed digital management will further reduce the average cost of the company. Raise the shipment expectation: the company’s current monthly effective shipment capacity is about 400 million square meters, corresponding to an annual shipment of 4.8 billion square meters; The company deeply bound the steel making Institute to break through the equipment supply bottleneck, increased the production capacity by 2.5 billion square meters in 22 years, is expected to contribute more than 500 million square meters to the effective shipment, and raised the wet diaphragm shipment expectation to more than 5.3 billion square meters. Dry process: in 22 years, the company’s dry process diaphragm was gradually put into operation, and the shipment is expected to be 250 million square meters, which will contribute to a new increase in performance.
The mass production of semi-solid battery is imminent, and the golden period of profit is coming
Semi solid battery diaphragm has special requirements for pore distance, pore diameter and water content. It is a customized product. At present, only a small amount of products are produced and supplied by the company; The process is complex, the coating formula is special, and the single flat price is higher. The shipment of this kind of products will improve the single flat profitability of the company. In addition, most semi-solid batteries are soft pack batteries, and their mass production will increase the demand for aluminum-plastic film; Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) with a forward-looking layout in the field of aluminum-plastic film, the current capacity planning has exceeded 400 million square meters. After 400 million square meters of aluminum-plastic film is fully produced and sold, it is expected to bring about 2.4 billion incremental performance to the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will reach RMB 2.667/55.69/6.494 billion, corresponding to 77.63/36.76/31.52 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected; The mass production time of all solid state battery is greatly advanced; The volume of aluminum plastic film is less than expected.!
