\u3000\u3000 Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) (603613)
Since its listing, it has had high growth for ten consecutive quarters, with stability and sustainability exceeding expectations
The company expects to achieve revenue of 37.1-37.4 billion yuan (+ 116% - 118%) and net profit attributable to parent company of 570-576 million yuan (+ 87% - 89%) in 2021, deducting net profit attributable to non parent company of 523-528 million yuan (+ 95.6% - 97.4%); The revenue of single Q4 is 13.6-13.9 billion yuan (+ 91% - 95%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 232-237 million yuan (+ 84% - 88%). Since its listing, it has had high growth for ten consecutive quarters, with stability and sustainability exceeding expectations.
Sustained, stable and high growth verified the track, mode and management ability, and Q4 net interest rate increased month on month
1) good industry: the e-commerce market for industrial products has tens of trillions of market space, with an industry growth rate of about 30% and a penetration rate of only 3%. With large space, high growth rate and low penetration rate, it has a strong industry beta. At present, more and more companies will enter the secondary market, which is expected to form a plate effect. 2) Good model: the business model of "downstream centralized purchase - group purchase - one-stop; upstream core - deep supply chain - cloud factory" adopted by the company has been continuously verified and has become one of the industry benchmarks; 3) Good company: excellent strategic execution and management concentration. In the upward cycle of raw materials, the company did not "stock up", resisted the temptation of soaring performance, firmly implemented the strategy of "platform, technology and data", and achieved sustained, stable and high growth in the weak economic cycle. Q4 net interest rate increased month on month.
The cloud factory model has been actively verified and is expected to provide new growth momentum
Cloud factory is actively practicing and promoting the mode of "deep supply chain + digital factory". For upstream suppliers, they have actually solved the "digital willingness and ability" and realized the digital landing of enterprises; For Guolian, it can deepen the in-depth binding cooperation and trust with upstream suppliers, improve its supply scale on Duoduo platform, increase the market share of Duoduo platform and improve barriers. At present, 20 companies have signed contracts, and 100 cloud factories will be realized in the next two years. Each company is expected to generate 500-1 billion transaction volume, which is expected to support 50-100 billion transaction scale.
Profit forecast and Valuation: raise profit forecast and buy rating
In view of the performance forecast exceeding expectations, we raised our profit forecast. It is expected that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 37.28/672/114.33 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 117.3% / 80.2% / 70.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 573 / 9.5/1.61 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 88.3% / 65.3% / 70%; At present, it corresponds to 37.8x in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the repurchase rate decreases; The growth rate of new customers decreased; Cloud factory business is less than expected
