\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be about 6.6-7.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11% – 27%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of non profits will be about 5.6-6.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16% – 39%.
2021 ended perfectly with excellent performance. In 2021, the company achieved a total sales volume of 2144400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 4.92%. Among them, in 2021, ai’an launched aiony, aionsplus and aionvplus to further improve the product matrix and enhance product competitiveness. The annual sales volume reached 120000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 101.80%, exceeding the target of 100000 vehicles set at the beginning of the year; GAC motor has successively launched new or upgraded and medium modified models such as shadow leopard, gs4plus, second-generation gs8 and m6pro, with a significant increase in product power, driving the annual sales volume to reach 324200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.35% and a bottom recovery; Guangfeng and guangben have entered a new round of product cycle. Guangfeng has successively launched six new models, such as the new Camry, the fourth generation Highlander and Saina. Guangben has also successively launched models, such as model grid, haoying plug-in hybrid version, the first pure electric car, Yile, Lingpai, accord and Odyssey. The continuous launch of new products has further enriched the product matrix of Liangtian, It helped guangben and Guangfeng achieve annual sales of 780300 and 828000 vehicles respectively. The growth of production and sales has improved the scale effect, the utilization rate of independent capacity has rebounded at the bottom, the product structure has improved, and the performance increment contributed by the joint venture is superimposed. In 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 6.6-7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% – 27%, with excellent performance.
Q4 performance exceeded expectations. The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in a single quarter is expected to be RMB 1.316-2.316 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37% – 140%, and the performance is better than expected. We believe that the main reasons may include: 1) the sales volume of Q4 GAC motor is 103000, with a year-on-year increase of 7.81%, and the high gross profit models such as GS4, gs8, M8, M6 and Yingbao continue to sell well, with the increase of sales volume, the improvement of capacity utilization and the improvement of product structure, driving the growth of gross profit margin; 2) Q4 ea’an sold 41600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 92.92%, and the gross profit margin continued to improve; 3) On November 13, the company issued an announcement to list and sell 49% equity of GAC motor Hangzhou base and relevant model specific assets to hechuang automobile and GAC passenger cars, resulting in income; 4) The sales volume of Q4 Guangfeng increased by 10.36% year-on-year, and the sales proportion of high gross profit models such as leiling, Camry, willanda, hanlanda and Sena increased by 6.97pct year-on-year, with a significant increase in investment income.
The company is expected to make a comprehensive breakthrough in the new product cycle in 2022. Ai’an: on January 1, 2022 aionsplus was officially launched and upgraded in appearance and configuration; On January 5, aionlxplus was officially launched. The new car is equipped with three lidar and sponge silicon negative battery, with a range of 1008km. The product power of the new car has been greatly improved, which is expected to contribute new increment to ai’an. GAC motor: according to the company’s official wechat, the second-generation GAC motor gs8, a new car launched in December 2021, has exceeded 20000 orders in 18 days. With the continuous release of shadow leopard orders and the continuous hot sales of GS4 and MPV models, GAC motor’s sales are expected to continue to grow in 2022. Joint venture: in 2022, guangben’s Xingge and Electric Vehicle E: NP1, Guangfeng’s Saina, fenglanda, Weisa and pure electric vehicle bz4x, and GAC Mitsubishi’s pure electric SUV artuko will be listed one after another. According to the company’s official micro, Xingge will obtain 10000 orders in only two weeks, and the sales volume of the joint venture is expected to continue to grow rapidly. With the gradual easing of the shortage of chips and the large-scale listing of new products, the continuous expansion of production of EA, Guangfeng and guangben and the orderly promotion of the mixed reform of EA and an, according to the company’s official wechat, the company has set the goal of challenging the year-on-year growth of automobile sales by 15% in 2022, and the company is expected to break through comprehensively in 2022.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the sales volume of GAC ea\’an is expected to increase significantly, GAC motor is expected to usher in the bottom reversal, and the listing of heavy models of joint venture brands is expected to bring significant performance flexibility to GAC. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.84 billion, RMB 9.81 billion and RMB 13.6 billion respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 22.0, 15.3 and 11.1 times respectively, maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price will be RMB 27.90/share.
Risk tip: the shortage of chips in the automotive industry is increasing; Risk that the independent sales volume is lower than expected; Risk of epidemic out of control
