\u3000\u3000 Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) (300057)
Core view
Event: on January 8, the company issued a plan for non-public offering of shares, which plans to issue no more than 198.7 million shares to specific objects and raise no more than 1.7 billion yuan. Of the raised funds, 1.2 billion yuan is proposed to be invested in the "100000 tons / year power and energy storage battery aluminum foil project".
The rapid expansion of battery aluminum foil production meets the downstream boom demand. The company expanded 100000 tons of battery foil, which is mainly used for positive collector of power and energy storage batteries. 1) High prosperity of battery aluminum foil, multi-point drive of new energy vehicles, energy storage and consumer electronics. We predict that the global power battery demand will be 429 / 553 / 748 / 1001 / 1335gwh from 2021 to 2025. Based on the most conservative calculation of 400 tons of aluminum foil / GWH, the battery aluminum foil demand will be 17.2/22.2/29.9/40.1/534000 tons, and the CAGR will reach 33%. 2) Battery aluminum foil has high technical specifications and scarce production capacity. The technical specifications of battery foil are much higher than those of conventional aluminum foil. High end rolling mill equipment needs to be imported overseas, and the production capacity construction cycle is 24 months; It is also very difficult to change the traditional aluminum foil production line. 3) The company's aluminum plate, strip and foil production capacity layout is comprehensive, and the margin of gross profit is repaired after the decline of aluminum price. At present, the company has 110000 tons of aluminum plate and strip processing capacity, 83000 tons of conventional double zero aluminum foil capacity and 40000 tons of battery aluminum foil capacity. Another 32000 tons of battery foil, 80000 tons of battery foil blank and 50000 tons of double zero aluminum foil capacity are under construction and are expected to be put into operation in 2023. After the subsequent production of all 172000 tons of battery foil, the company's battery foil production capacity will be in the first camp in the industry. Meanwhile, the aluminum ingot price has dropped by about 20% from the high level, and the cost pressure of the company's aluminum processing business has been greatly reduced.
The traditional business operation is stable, and the battery negative electrode copper coating is laid out in the long term. The company's traditional paper packaging material business is stable, and the functional film material business continues to explore new directions. The company plans to develop the "process project of plating double-sided copper foil on organic carrier film", and cooperates with downstream high-quality power battery manufacturers. In the future, the copper film business is expected to be industrialized to replace lithium battery copper foil.
Profit forecast: we expect the company to achieve a revenue of RMB 5.82/7.83 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 49/2.82/368 million from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to pe13.0 billion 0 / 29.1 / 22.3, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the demand for power and energy storage battery is lower than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The downstream certification of battery aluminum foil is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
