\u3000\u3000 Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) (000683)
The company is the target of China's natural alkali scarcity, and is expected to grow into a soda ash giant in the future, giving a "buy" rating
At present, the company is the only enterprise in China that uses natural alkali to produce soda ash. In the future, the company will focus on natural alkali and coal chemical industry. According to the company's announcement, the company currently has an equity production capacity of 2.34 million tons of natural alkali, 1.17 million tons of urea and 2.72 million tons of coal. The company plans to control Yingen mining through acquisition and capital increase, and lead the construction of 8.6 million tons of natural alkali project in the future. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.900, 2.822 and 3.857 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.33, 0.77 and 1.05 respectively. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 6.7, 11.6 and 8.5 times respectively, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time.
The company plans to control Yingen mining industry and lead the construction of 8.6 million tons of talin natural alkali project
Yingen mining has a large natural alkali mine and will build 7.8 million T / a soda ash and 800000 T / a baking soda projects. Phase I production capacity of 3.4 million T / a soda ash and 300000 t / a baking soda; The capacity of phase II is 4.4 million T / a soda ash and 500000 T / a baking soda. Phase I is expected to be completed by the end of 2022 and put into trial production in the first half of 2023. At present, the company holds 36% equity of Yingen mining and is undergoing major asset restructuring. It plans to acquire 14% equity of Yingen mining held by Na Baichuan with RMB 2.086 billion and increase the capital of Yingen mining with RMB 3.725 billion. At that time, the company will hold 60% of Yingen mining, obtain its controlling stake, lead the project construction and open up growth space. After the two phases are fully completed, the complete cost of Yingen mining per ton of natural alkali is expected to reach 556 yuan / ton, with obvious cost advantage.
With the intensive production of photovoltaic glass, there is great potential for new production capacity of natural alkali in the future
In terms of float glass, from 2020 to 2021, the newly started area of real estate is still at an all-time high, and the base number of completed area of houses in 2022 will still be high. Superimposed on the warming of real estate financing environment since December 2021, we expect the float glass boom in 2022 to be maintained. In terms of photovoltaic glass, according to the data of China photovoltaic Association, under optimistic circumstances, it is expected that the global newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 170, 225, 270, 300 and 330gw respectively from 2021 to 2025, and the soda ash demand driven by the demand for new photovoltaic glass is expected to reach 238, 329, 384, 424 and 4.67 million tons respectively. In terms of supply, with the relocation of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) 1.3 million ton unit, the supply of soda ash may still be tight in 2022 under the resonance of supply and demand. In the long term, the capacity expansion of soda ash industry is mainly based on the 8.6 million ton natural alkali project of Yingen mining. The demand for new installed capacity of photovoltaic is growing rapidly, and the demand for new photovoltaic glass is expected to consume the new natural alkali production capacity.
Risk tips: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the approval of project indicators is delayed, and the project construction is less than expected
