\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (601128)
Matters:
On January 11, 2022, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) released the performance express. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of RMB 7.653 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.27%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.184 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.13%, and roe11.5% in 2021 58%, up 1.24pct from last year. By the end of 2021, the total assets of the company were 246.6 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2% over the beginning of the year; The total loan was 162.8 billion yuan, an increase of 23.6% over the beginning of the year, and the total deposit was 182.7 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the beginning of the year
Ping An View:
Revenue performance was bright and profit growth accelerated. Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 21.13% (vs19.04%, 21q1-3) year on year, and the revenue increased by 16.27% (vs12.96%, 21q1-3) year on year. We believe that the increase of the company’s profit growth is mainly due to the acceleration of revenue growth, and the thick provisions also have a certain back feeding. In terms of revenue, considering the relatively stable expansion of the company’s asset scale, we judge that the acceleration of the company’s revenue growth is more due to the asset side pricing repair brought by the strong growth of small and micro credit business.
Deposits and loans expanded steadily, and the micro loan business maintained rapid development. In terms of scale, the growth rate of the company’s total assets in 21 years reached 18.2% (vs 18.9%, 21q3), still maintaining rapid expansion. The asset structure continued to tilt towards the main business of loans. The loan growth rate in 21 years reached 23.6% (vs24.0%, 21q3), faster than the growth rate of total assets. Among them, the proportion of personal loans in total loans reached 61.02%, increased by 2.34pct compared with the end of the third quarter, and the proportion of personal operating loans in total loans reached 39.84%, increased by 2.07pct compared with the end of the third quarter. The micro loan business maintained a good development trend. In terms of liabilities, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of 15.1% (vs16.0%, 21q3) in deposits in 21 years, with a slight slowdown.
Asset quality remained stable and provision coverage continued to be consolidated. The non-performing rate of the company at the end of 2021 was 0.81%, unchanged from the end of the third quarter, a decrease of 15bp compared with the same period in 2020. The performance of asset quality remained stable and continued to be at a low level in the industry. Looking forward to 2022, relying on the excellent regional background and the relatively scattered customer base structure brought by the long-term deep cultivation of small and micro businesses, we expect the pressure on the company’s asset quality to be controllable in the future. At the end of 2021, the provision coverage rate of the company was 532%, increased by 10.6pct and 4.31% compared with the end of the third quarter, increased by 8bp compared with the end of the third quarter, and the risk offset capacity continued to be consolidated.
Investment suggestion: the performance express has a bright performance and is optimistic about the long-term development space of small and micro businesses. Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) deeply cultivate the local county economy and small and micro enterprises. The local advantages and the business differentiation of small and micro enterprises are obvious, and the retail and small and micro businesses are developing steadily. Over the past 21 years, the interest margin that has dragged down the company’s revenue and profit performance has stabilized and repaired, the profit growth rate has maintained rapid growth, and the asset quality has been stable and good. Looking forward to the future, with the support of good regional economy, the company’s fundamentals are expected to continue to improve. In combination with the company’s performance express, we maintain the company’s performance forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company’s EPS in 2022 and 2023 will be 0.94/1.08 yuan respectively, and the corresponding profit growth rate will be 18.2% / 15.1% respectively. At present, the company’s share price corresponds to 0.93x/0.85x Pb in 2022 / 2023 respectively. We are optimistic about the development space of the company’s small and micro business for a long time and maintain the “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic downturn leads to higher than expected pressure on industry asset quality; 2) The strength of financial supervision increased more than expected; 3) The escalation of Sino US friction has led to an increase in external risks.
