\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) (600096)
Event 1: on January 10, the company issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.5 billion yuan to 3.7 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1187% to 1260%. Among them, 2021q4 company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 660 million yuan to 860 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 297% to 417%.
Event 2: on January 10, the company issued the announcement on the change of raised investment projects and the extension of raised investment projects. The company plans to change the remaining fund raised from the original raised investment project (60000 T / a polyoxymethylene project of Xinjiang yunjutian new materials Co., Ltd.) to the construction of "100000 t / a battery new material (iron phosphate) precursor project" of Tian\'an chemical industry. In addition, due to the change of the company's business and the change of the type of heat source used in relevant projects, the company plans to extend the date when the " Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) logistics operation upgrading and transformation project" and "fluorine resources comprehensive utilization technology transformation project" reach the scheduled usable state from December 2021 to December 2022.
Comments:
Product prices have increased, and the advantages of integrated industrial chain have helped the company greatly increase its performance
Since the outbreak of covid-19, countries around the world have paid more and more attention to ensuring food self-sufficiency, global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices have risen, farmers' willingness to plant has increased, and the global demand for chemical fertilizer has continued to increase. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the global chemical fertilizer production capacity is limited, which leads to tight supply and demand in the global chemical fertilizer market, superimposed with the rise of commodity prices, leading to the rise of chemical fertilizer product prices. According to Ifind data, in 2021, the selling prices of the company's main products monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, urea, phosphate rock, paraformaldehyde, yellow phosphorus and feed grade calcium hydrogen phosphate increased by 50.3%, 41.0%, 33.5%, 40.3%, 59.8%, 82.7% and 60.0% respectively year-on-year. Benefiting from the substantial increase in the price of main products, the company's performance has improved significantly. In addition, as the leader of China's phosphorus chemical industry, the company has a complete phosphorus chemical industry chain and resource advantages. Through the high self-sufficiency of raw materials such as phosphate rock, phosphoric acid and synthetic ammonia, as well as the procurement planning of bulk raw materials such as sulfur and coal, the company has effectively controlled its production cost and greatly improved its overall profitability.
The raised funds were transferred to iron phosphate project, and the layout of new energy industry was accelerated
Xinjiang yunjutian 60000t / a polyoxymethylene project originally planned to be invested by the company with raised funds belongs to "two high" projects (i.e. high energy consumption and high pollution). Up to now, there is still great uncertainty about the evaluation and approval of the project. Therefore, in order to improve the use efficiency of the raised funds, the company plans to use the remaining raised funds (about 1.059 billion yuan) of the original raised investment project for the "100000 t / a iron phosphate precursor project" of Tian\'an chemical industry, which will add 100000 t / a iron phosphate capacity to the company and produce ammonium sulfate and monoammonium phosphate by-product. The overall investment budget of the project is RMB 1.629 billion, which is part of the phase I project of "500000 T / a iron phosphate battery new material precursor and supporting project" disclosed by the company in October 2021. According to the company's plan, the 100000 t / a iron phosphate project involved in this announcement is planned to be completed in June 2022 and reach the expected usable state in August 2022.
In the context of "carbon neutralization", new energy vehicles and other related industries maintain a rapid development trend, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of power batteries is also increasing, which significantly promotes the demand for upstream iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate. In the process of extending to the new energy industry, the company's deep accumulation in the phosphorus chemical industry constitutes an important competitive advantage. In terms of upstream raw material supply, as one of the largest phosphate mining and dressing enterprises in China, the company has nearly 800 million tons of phosphate resource reserves and a production capacity of 14.5 million tons, which can effectively ensure the supply of high-quality phosphorus source required by downstream production links, so as to reduce the impact of raw material price fluctuation on product profitability. In terms of supporting production technology, the company is one of the few enterprises in China that fully master the production of industrial purified phosphoric acid by wet process phosphoric acid solvent extraction method, and has technical and cost advantages in the field of wet process purified phosphoric acid. During the construction of iron phosphate project, the company will further expand the capacity of refined wet process phosphoric acid and hydrogen peroxide as supporting facilities. We believe that with the advantages of a complete phosphorus chemical industry chain and sufficient raw material resources, the company, as the leader of the phosphorus chemical industry, is easier to stand out in the subsequent industrial competition of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company's performance is in line with expectations, and we maintain the company's profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.548/37.12/3.817 billion respectively, and the converted EPS will be RMB 1.93/2.02/2.08/share respectively. We continue to pay attention to the progress of the company's business layout in new energy and other high value-added fields, and still maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: product price fluctuation risk, lower downstream demand than expected, new energy material capacity construction risk, safety production and environmental protection risk.
