\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.660-2.760 billion during the reporting period, with a year-on-year increase of 138.44% - 147.40%, including the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 905-1.005 billion in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 92-113% and a month-on-month increase of 28% - 42%. It is estimated that during the reporting period, the net profit of non parent company deduction will be RMB 2.557-2.657 billion, an increase of RMB 1.566-1.666 billion over the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 158.15% - 168.25%, of which the net profit of non parent company deduction will be RMB 929-1.029 billion in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 115-139% and a month-on-month increase of 44% - 60%.
Seize the development opportunity of lithium battery diaphragm industry, improve production and sales and contribute to performance increment. The substantial expansion of power battery manufacturers has driven the continuous strong demand for lithium battery diaphragm. We estimate that the demand for lithium battery diaphragm will reach 8.155 billion Ping in 2021, and will increase to 31.543 billion Ping in 2025, with a CAGR of about 40.23% in four years. At the same time, the expansion of diaphragm is often restricted by equipment capacity. At present, the supply and demand of lithium battery diaphragm is tight. Seizing the development opportunity of lithium battery diaphragm industry, the company continued to improve the capacity of lithium battery diaphragm, the production and sales volume continued to grow steadily, and the shipment volume was the world leader. The company further strengthened internal management, reduced cost and increased efficiency, significantly improved the overall profit level of the company, and the performance in 2021 slightly exceeded expectations.
Greatly expand the production of lithium diaphragm, enrich the film product line for new energy, and continue to explore markets at home and abroad. The company plans to invest and build a total capacity of 3.2 billion square meters of lithium diaphragm, 280 million square meters of aluminum plastic film and 200 million square meters of coated film in Chongqing, Changzhou, Jiangsu and Suzhou, steadily expand the capacity of lithium diaphragm, broaden the product line of lithium membrane and create a new performance growth point. The company also actively distributes its overseas business. It plans to build four automatic imported film making production lines and more than 30 coating production lines in the Hungarian base. The overall annual production capacity of the base film of the project is about 400 million square meters. It is expected to achieve mass production in 2023, and the company's leading position in the industry will be continuously consolidated.
The company is deeply bound to downstream major customers, and its ability to undertake large-scale orders is continuously improved. The company has successfully entered the supply chain system of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LGChem, Panasonic, Samsung, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and other large battery manufacturers. The company is constantly enhancing its strength to match the future development needs of downstream customers, and the ability to undertake large-scale orders continues to improve. Previously, the company has signed cooperation agreements with Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) respectively, and plans to establish joint ventures with them to build 1.6 billion square meters of wet lithium membrane and coating membrane projects and 3.6 billion square meters of wet / dry membrane projects respectively, so as to achieve win-win cooperation and strong determination of the company's medium and long-term performance.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company's performance in 2021 slightly exceeded expectations. We raised the company's profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the company's profit forecast for 2022-2023. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 27.08 (up 4.9%) / 4.127/6.015 billion yuan respectively, and the converted EPS will be 3.03/4.62/6.74 yuan / share respectively. We maintain the "overweight" rating of the company.
Risk tip: the landing risk of cooperative projects, the risk of capacity construction, and the downstream demand are less than expected.
