\u3000\u3000 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233)
Event:
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (600233) released the announcement on the pre increase of performance in 2021. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 from 2 million yuan to 220 million yuan, an increase of 233.2478 million yuan to 433.2478 million yuan over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 13.20% to 24.52%.
The company also issued Q4 forecast. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies ranging from 1045.9005 million yuan to 1245.9005 million yuan, an increase of 665.1260 million yuan to 865.1260 million yuan over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%.
Comments
1. Increase of express fee
The government has issued a series of regulatory policies and guidelines for the express industry to regulate irrational competition. According to the policy, the express delivery fee will be increased from September 1, 2021 to protect the rights and interests of salespeople. It coincided with the “double 11” and other e-commerce shopping festivals, and the express unit price increased slightly. The express market management measures (Exposure Draft) issued in January 2022 is to promote the gradual transformation of the competition pattern of the express industry from price driven to value driven.
2. Self operated cargo aviation assistance
The company’s semi annual report disclosed that it has 10 own fleets and more than 15 international routes. Construction of self operated aviation network: promote the upgrading of product structure, develop business parts and cold chain market, improve the timeliness of express products and improve user experience; At the same time, taking advantage of the sharp rise in international cross-border air transport prices in the second half of 2021, we will expand cross-border freight forwarding business and air transport business.
Investment rating
EPS is expected to be 0.61, 0.75 and 0.93 respectively in the next three years, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The decline of express freight volume exceeded expectations, and the express price war opened again.
