\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the performance forecast for 2021: according to the preliminary calculation of the financial department, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 is expected to be about 6.6 billion yuan to 7.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 11% to 27% compared with the same period of last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was about 5.6 billion yuan to 6.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 16% to 39% compared with the same period of last year. Comments are as follows:
The company's performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the 2021q4 net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent are the best Q4 performance of the company since 2018: according to the performance forecast, the company's 2021 net profit attributable to the parent ranges from RMB 6.6 billion to RMB 7.6 billion, with a corresponding median value of RMB 7.1 billion, which is basically equivalent to our predicted value of RMB 7.268 billion. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 ranges from RMB 1.316 billion to RMB 2.316 billion, with a median value of RMB 1.816 billion. Since the fourth quarter is usually the period when the company centrally recognizes expenses and impairment, the fourth quarter is usually the low performance of each quarter. Compared with previous years, in 2021, Liangtian and independent brands are facing the impact of lack of core and rising raw material prices. Even so, the net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent in 2021q4 achieved the best results in the fourth quarter since 2018, which was significantly higher than that in 2021q3. This is related to the scale effect caused by the rapid rebound of GAC Toyota Q4 sales (Q4 Guangfeng sales increased by 10.4% and 47.1% month on month), the increase in the proportion of Guangfeng high-end vehicles (Camry, hanlanda and willanda Q4 significantly increased to more than 60%), and the significant increase in GAC independent sales (23.5% and 36.6% month on month growth).
There are plenty of new models in 2022, waiting for 2022: competitive new models that are expected to sell well are a sharp weapon for vehicle enterprises to improve their performance. In the second half of 2021 and 2022q1 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , a number of competitive new models were intensively listed by independent and joint venture vehicle enterprises. Independent sector: GAC motor's new second-generation gs8 was officially launched in December 2021, with more than 20000 orders within 18 days of listing, and the demand for hybrid version exceeded 50%. At the end of November 2021, the fuel version gs8 will be delivered, and the hybrid version will also be delivered; Aion lxplus and 2022 aion SPLUS were launched on January 5 and January 1, 2022 respectively, and the vehicle prices were increased compared with the old models. Joint venture sector: GAC Honda Xingge intergra was listed on December 16, 2021, and the order volume exceeded 10000 in two weeks. On December 26, 2021, the new Odyssey was listed and priced from 235800 yuan to 354800 yuan. GAC Toyota fenglanda was listed on January 6, 2022 at a price of 125800-169800 yuan, and GAC Fengtian Weisa was listed on January 10, 2022 at a price of 216800-303800 yuan. Fenglanda and Weisa filled the market gap between GAC Toyota Chr, weilanda and hanlanda, and further enriched GAC Toyota's product line. In addition, GAC Toyota Saina, which was listed on October 30, 2021, is priced at 309800-405800 yuan, with pre-sale orders of more than 10000 a month. In December, Saina achieved wholesale sales of 2791 vehicles. We expect that Saina's production capacity will be gradually released in 2022q1, and Saina is expected to contribute to performance increment. In short, the new models of Liangtian will be an important guarantee for the impact of both on double million sales. (see our in-depth report Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) in-depth report series 5: CO directional resonance of joint venture plate 20211026 for details)
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: in 2021, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) still achieved perfect results despite the impact of supply chain factors caused by the epidemic. The centralized listing of new models has consolidated the growth certainty in 2022 and beyond. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) continue to deepen organizational reform, intensify organizational vitality and escort the comprehensive recovery of the independent sector. We believe that the joint venture sector of the company will enter the stage of growth acceleration, and the independent sector will also enter the stage of substantive and comprehensive recovery. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term development prospects of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 7.27 billion, RMB 12.89 billion and RMB 15.75 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.70, RMB 1.25 and RMB 1.52. According to the closing prices of a and h on January 10, 2022, the PE of GAC A shares are 21, 12 and 10 times respectively, and the PE of GAC H shares are 9, 5 and 4 times respectively, maintaining the "strongly recommended" rating of GAC A and GAC H shares.
Risk tip: the industry demand is low, the company's new models are less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected.
