\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (300769)
Key investment points
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 516-586 million yuan, with a month on month increase of 373.2% - 437.4%, greatly exceeding the market expectation. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 760-830 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2776.06% - 3022.54%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be RMB 516-586 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3097.56% - 3504.30% and a month-on-month increase of 373.2% - 437.4%, which is much higher than the market expectation.
Q4 shipment volume increased by 60 +% month on month, superimposed with a significant increase in profitability and a significant increase in performance. We expect the company to ship 35000 ~ 38000 tons of Q4 lithium iron cathode, with a month on month increase of 65% +, a year-on-year increase of 270% +, mainly because the company's 30000 tons of technological transformation increment has been put into operation in Q4. We expect that the company's iron lithium cathode will ship 90000 tons + in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 200%. In terms of profitability, we expect the company's profit per ton of 2021q4 lithium iron phosphate to be RMB 15000 ~ 16000 / ton, a significant increase of nearly 2 times month on month. The increase in profit is more due to the cost reduction of large-scale production and the improvement of bargaining power caused by the short supply of the industry. We expect Q4 single ton profit to be nearly 10000 / ton. In the whole year of 21, the company's profit per ton exceeded 8500 / ton, which we expect to maintain in 22 years.
The demand for electric vehicles and energy storage is strong, the penetration rate of iron lithium is still further improved, and the supply and demand of iron lithium cathode has maintained a tight balance in 22 years. In 21 years, due to Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) switching iron lithium batteries and the outbreak of energy storage market, the output of iron lithium cathode industry exceeded 400000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 190% +. In 22 years, we expect that the share of iron and lithium in China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries will further increase from 50% to 60%, and the energy storage demand will continue to more than double, and the corresponding cathode demand is expected to double to 800000 tons. However, the new capacity of the industry is limited, and the supply and demand will basically maintain a balance. We expect that the price of 22q1 lithium iron cathode will still increase with the price rise of carbonic acid, and will be mainly stable in the follow-up. The leading profit level in 22 years can still remain high.
The company's capacity continues to expand, and we expect it to double in 22 years. We expect that the company's production capacity will reach 330000 tons by the end of 2022, with a planned capacity of 440000 tons of ferromanganese lithium. It will be put into operation from 2023 to 2024, and the total production capacity is planned to reach 770000 tons. The company deeply binds Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and provides Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) alone. In 2021, it successfully broke through Byd Company Limited(002594) and officially supplies. In 2022, the company has full orders, Q1 off-season is not light, and the production capacity is completely full. With the gradual release of new production capacity, we expect that the annual shipment is expected to exceed 230000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 155% +, and the equity shipment is expected to reach 200000 tons. Subsequent overseas battery plants may lay out iron lithium lines, and the company is expected to provide supporting facilities.
The company's layout of manganese iron lithium is leading in the industry and its competitiveness is further strengthened. Lithium ferromanganese phosphate 2022h2 is expected to be shipped in small quantities. The production capacity of 100000 tons will be released in 2023, which is expected to be mass produced. The energy density of the company's new lithium manganese iron phosphate battery can be increased by about 20%, and the cycle life can reach 3000-5000 times. At present, it has passed the small batch verification of downstream customers. In addition, 25000 tons of lithium supplement are expected to be mass produced in 2023, which can further strengthen the company's technical advantages.
Investment suggestion: considering the high demand for iron and lithium, the company is a leading enterprise of iron and lithium, and the rapid expansion of production capacity, we revised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 802 / 1528 / 2125 million yuan (the original forecast value was 385 / 859 / 1252 million yuan), a year-on-year increase of 2924% / 91% / 39%, corresponding to pe51 / 27 / 19x, give 45 times PE in 2022, the target price is 771 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
