\u3000\u3000 Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) (603613)
Core view
Event: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize revenue of 37.1 billion ~ 37.4 billion yuan (+ 116.2% ~ + 118.0%), net profit attributable to parent company of 571 million ~ 576 million (+ 87.37% ~ + 89.01%), and non net profit deducted from 523 million to 528 million (+ 95.6% ~ + 97.4%). Based on this calculation, the single quarter revenue of 21q4 is RMB 13.625 billion ~ 13.925 billion (+ 91.2% ~ + 95.4%), the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is RMB 232 million ~ 237 million (+ 84.3% ~ + 88.3%), and the non net profit deducted from Q4 is RMB 217 million ~ 222 million (+ 109.5% ~ + 114.3%). The non net profit margin deducted in the single quarter of 21q4 is expected to be about 1.59%, an overall increase of 0.29pct over the first three quarters of 21 years and 0.14pct over the same period last year.
The logic of the industrial e-commerce platform continued to be fulfilled, the performance continued to grow high, and the net interest rate increased month on month. In 2021, bulk commodities experienced a round of price rise cycle, which put pressure on the profit margin of e-commerce transactions, and the company’s new platforms and new categories are also in the expansion stage. The overall objective conditions may affect the company’s overall profit margin. In this context, Q4 still achieved the year-on-year and month on month improvement of non net profit deduction. We believe that this is not only the embodiment of the scale effect of the platform and efficient internal management, but also the embodiment of the influence of “Duoduo” platform in the industrial chain
The digital cloud factory has been launched, the digital business of the industrial chain has been substantially launched, and the influence of the platform is expected to continue to improve. In 2021, the company’s “100 cloud factories construction plan” was officially launched, and 20 cloud factories participated in the double ten e-commerce festival in 2021, involving titanium, sanitary paper, lubricating oil, fertilizer, glass, grain and oil, carbon industries, etc. In addition, the company’s more than 10 categories of digital cloud warehouse, central warehouse and delivery warehouse have been built successively, and PTD industrial Internet platform and Guolian Zhiyun platform are also progressing smoothly. We believe that the digital cloud factory is the realistic foundation for the company to move towards digital services in the industrial chain. It is expected to directly improve the offline resource scheduling ability, and also generate new business models and growth points.
The growth space of the company is still broad, and it is expected to usher in the second growth curve, and there is room for long-term improvement of profit margin. We believe that the trading volume penetration of the company’s e-commerce platforms is still far from saturation. With the implementation of the cloud factory, the company’s profitability and competitive barriers are expected to be further improved, which may start the second growth curve in the future. On the other hand, it is expected that with the improvement of the absolute value of the platform trading volume and the gradual implementation of the new business model, the company’s profit margin will have the potential to improve for a long time in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 573 million / 1023 million / 1705 million in 21-23 years. We adopt DCF valuation method to maintain the target price of RMB 136.35 and the target market value of RMB 47.05 billion, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
The business development of the new e-commerce platform is less than expected, the macro-economy is depressed, and the industry competition is intensified
