\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be RMB 2.66 billion – 2.76 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 138% – 147%; After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 2.56 billion-2.66 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 158% – 168%; The basic earnings per share is 2.98 yuan / share -3.09 yuan / share. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was RMB 900-1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 91% – 112% and a month-on-month increase of 28% – 42%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 930 million-1.03 billion. The performance slightly exceeded expectations.
The company’s fundamentals are stable and positive, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price has greatly improved its profitability. It is estimated that the company’s lithium battery diaphragm shipments in the fourth quarter were close to 1 billion square meters, corresponding to about 2.8 billion square meters in the whole year. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will reach 3.4 million in 2021, which is significantly higher than expected throughout the year. The demand for power lithium batteries continues to be strong, and the tail warping effect is significant at the end of the year, driving the market demand for diaphragm. The company’s lithium battery diaphragm was produced at full capacity, and the shipment continued to grow month on month. According to the statistics of xinlune lithium battery, the company’s output hit a new record in December. As the company and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) locked the diaphragm supply in 2022 through advance payment, the atmosphere of shortage of medium and high-end diaphragm supply was further exacerbated. By the end of 2021, 7 μ m+2 μ M ceramic coated diaphragm, for example, the average price has reached 2.6 yuan / m2, an increase of 0.2 yuan / m2 compared with the end of the third quarter, further increasing the profit margin of the company. In the future, with the increasingly tight supply, the prosperity is expected to remain high in the first half of 2022, and the price of wet diaphragm is expected to usher in another round of general rise.
The company plans to increase and expand the production of diaphragm and aluminum-plastic film to further consolidate its global leading position. On November 23, 2021, the company reissued the plan for non-public development of A-Shares in 2021 and invested in key capacity construction: it is proposed to raise an additional 12.8 billion yuan to invest in the new capacity of wet diaphragm and aluminum-plastic film, including 1.2 billion flat wet film in Chongqing phase I and phase II, 2 billion flat wet film in Jintan, Jiangsu, 280 million flat aluminum-plastic film and 200 million flat coated film in Jieli. The fixed growth plan focuses on the company’s main business, which is conducive to the rapid growth of production capacity, driving the improvement of market share and strengthening the company’s production capacity advantage. It is expected that the company will add about 25 wet diaphragm production lines in 2022, and the shipment capacity of wet diaphragm is expected to reach 5 billion square meters by the end of 2022.
The company is deeply bound with customers and has strong certainty of future performance. In the second half of 2021, the company conducted joint venture expansion with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) respectively. With the advantages of cost, quality and scale, the company is expected to deeply bind major downstream customers and provide higher certainty for future shipments. With reference to the good pace of capacity expansion and superior product quality, the global share of the company is expected to increase steadily to 50% in the medium and long term. Meanwhile, the dry process diaphragm jointly arranged by the company and Celgard has cost and quality advantages and has been recognized by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other downstream manufacturers. It is expected that the product introduction speed will be greatly improved and the performance will be released smoothly in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company’s lithium diaphragm business will continue to maintain rapid growth and stable release of production capacity. The compound growth rate of the company’s total revenue in the next three years is 65%. Considering the absolute leading position of the company’s lithium diaphragm and the development of the company’s new business, maintain the “hold” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the company’s production capacity is not released on schedule; Risk of price fluctuation of main raw materials; The risk of intensified market competition; Risks of technological progress and product substitution; Risk of exchange rate changes.
