\u3000\u3000 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) (002154)
Events
Zhejiang Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) Venture Capital Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) , holds 13.16% of the equity of odor Kingdom, which is a financial investment. Recently, it has been rediscovered by the market on the company's investor relations interaction platform.
Analysis and judgment:
According to the official website, the founder of odor kingdom is from Ali. The company was established in April 2015. It is the first digital odor technology R & D enterprise in China and the first application solution provider in the digital odor industry in the world. According to Sina, in August 2021, the company obtained 50 million yuan in a + round of financing, and the latest round of valuation reached 330 million yuan. The company carries out the information processing through the software, including the smell movie, the smell tour, the home odor host, the digital perfume, the smell advertisement machine and so on.
According to Sina, the company's main barriers lie in: (1) independent research and development and production of hardware end, core components, micro valves and micro pumps: the pain point of odor equipment lies in the need to balance the diffusion and elimination of odor. The company has solved the difficulties of odor storage, quantitative release and directional transmission at the hardware end, and has micro integrated solenoid valve More than 130 patented technologies such as low-power piezoelectric ceramic pump and odor vortex ring control technology; (2) On the software side, the first mover advantage creates entry barriers: the company is committed to establishing a digital odor dictionary and a digital odor database. At present, the company's dictionary has included more than 3000 basic odor codes, and has established the world's largest digital odor database, which solves the problem of lack of olfactory information and difficult to inherit in history.
According to Sina, the company's profit model is mainly divided into 2B and 2c, (1) the 2B end is mainly used in cinemas, scenic spots, commercial supermarket terminal display and other scenes. According to the data of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) investor platform, at present, digital odor film broadcasting equipment has been landing in more than 300 cinemas across the country and in many scenic spots; (2) 2C end products are expected to be promoted in 2022. Future profit models may include: Sales of vehicle, household equipment and consumables, confirmation fees of digital assets and charging income of odor cloud storage. We analyze that in the longer term, smell solves the problem of realism in virtual scenes.
Investment advice
In the short term, we estimate that Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) has maintained a good growth since December and January, and is still relatively stable against the background of the epidemic. Our analysis mainly comes from the contribution of accelerating the opening of stores in 21q3 and the beginning of new stores. In the medium and long term, the revenue side is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 20%: (1) main brand: Although the growth of business men's wear slows down, the company has increased its efforts to open stores in the central region by creating sports suits and broadening application scenarios, maintaining a growth rate of more than 15% higher than that of the industry; (2) Hazys: on the basis of high efficiency, the brand still has extension store space. Compared with the current number of 393 stores, we judge that the store space in the medium term is more than 600; In addition, the brand still has the logic of expanding categories such as shoes, bags and golf series, which is expected to maintain an increase of more than 25% in the future; (3) The centralized purchase policy is good for the leader of professional wear. In the future, BAONIAO is expected to accelerate the expansion of key customers, and usher in the improvement of net interest rate with the production of Hefei factory, maintaining an increase of more than 10%; (4) Small brands zhonglefeiye and kemiche are expected to maintain an increase of more than 35% and gradually contribute to profits. Maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue in the year of 21 / 22 / 23 will be RMB 4.597/57.53/6.931 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent will be RMB 501 / 658 / 836 million. On January 6, 22, the company successfully issued the fixed increase, and the corresponding EPS of the new share capital will be RMB 0.34/0.45/0.57 respectively. On January 11, 2022, the share price will be RMB 5.32, and the corresponding PE will be RMB 15.5/12/9x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Uncertainty of epidemic development, lower than expected progress of store opening, systemic risk.
