\u3000\u3000 Guilin Fuda Co.Ltd(603166) (603166)
Key investment points:
China's leading supplier of crankshafts, whose performance in 2021 was slightly disturbed by the commercial vehicle market. The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of engine crankshafts, automobile clutches, spiral bevel gears, precision forgings and high-strength bolts such as automobiles, construction machinery and nuclear power. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue reached 1.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 159 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.23%. Among them, the revenue in the third quarter was 347 million yuan, down 23.90% year-on-year and 31.96% month on month, mainly due to the sharp decline in the sales volume of commercial vehicle customers in the third quarter due to the switching of heavy truck national standards. In the third quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.09% and a month on month decrease of 29.82%. Due to the dual impact of the decline in revenue and the rise in the price of raw materials, the net profit attributable to the parent company also declined month on month, but the decline was less than the revenue.
The core focus of the company is the improvement of the market share of passenger car crankshafts in China. There are two main categories of participants in China's crankshaft market, one is the supporting supply chain manufacturers of the vehicle factory, and the other is an independent Crankshaft factory. At present, the development trend of crankshaft industry is that with the electric transformation of vehicle manufacturers and the iterative upgrading of engines, more and more vehicle manufacturers release the demand for crankshaft to independent crankshaft factories. As the core component of automobile engine, crankshaft has extremely high technical barriers. We believe that only crankshaft manufacturers with sufficient strength are expected to undertake the demand released by vehicle manufacturers. In the independent Crankshaft factory, the company currently has a production capacity of 1.2 million passenger car crankshafts, which is far ahead of the industry. In the next few years, the company will continue to rapidly expand the production capacity of passenger car crankshafts. In terms of customers, the company obtained the fixed point of BMW B48 crankshaft in 2019 and is expected to start supply in the second half of this year; The company is the exclusive supplier of crankshaft of Byd Company Limited(002594) DM-I hybrid system, and is expected to continue to benefit from the rapid volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) DM-I this year; At the same time, the company has maintained good cooperation with Geely, great wall, Chang'an and other Chinese independent brands, and is expected to undertake the demand of Chinese independent brand crankshaft in the future. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the company's future development in the passenger car crankshaft market.
Give the company a "recommended" rating. It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.890 billion yuan, 2.082 billion yuan and 2.457 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 223 million yuan, 248 million yuan and 304 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.35 yuan, 0.38 yuan and 0.47 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE multiples of current stock price of 24.60 times, 22.14 times and 18.04 times. Considering that the company, as the leader of passenger car crankshafts in China, benefited from the large volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid models, with reference to the valuation level of comparable companies, the company was given a PE valuation of 28-30 times in 2022, with a corresponding reasonable valuation range of 10.64-11.40 yuan, and the company was given a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the production and sales of cars are lower than expected, and the production and sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid are lower than expected.
