\u3000\u3000 Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) (300782)
Events
Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) released the annual performance forecast for 2021: it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.05 billion-2.157 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 91.09% - 101.06%.
Key investment points
The performance forecast for 2021 is in line with expectations, and the forward-looking product layout contributes to sustainable growth
According to the calculation of the company's annual performance forecast in 2021, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 is expected to be 523-630 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.32% - 77.46% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9% - 22.8%. The rapid growth of the company's performance mainly benefits from the incremental market demand for RF front-end products generated by the development of 5g communication technology, combined with the company's advantageous layout in supply chain management. Focusing on the forward-looking R & D layout, the company continues to promote the improvement and upgrading of the product line, in which the traditional advantageous product RF discrete devices achieve further volume through continuous upgrading and rapid iteration; The new product - RF module at the receiving end, with the advantages of good product performance, sufficient and stable supply and delivery capacity, has been rapidly loaded and continuously penetrated at the client, promoting the steady development of the business. According to yole's data, by 2025, the market scale of RF front-end is expected to reach US $25.4 billion, and the average annual compound growth rate will reach 11% from 2020 to 2025. Among them, the market scale of RF module will reach US $17.7 billion, accounting for about 69% of the total capacity of RF front-end market, and the average annual compound growth rate will reach 8%. From the perspective of competition pattern, at present, the top five leading enterprises in the industry are foreign enterprises, accounting for 79% of the RF front-end market share in 2019. China's supply is seriously insufficient, and there is a wide space for domestic substitution.
Domestic RF front-end leader with clear long-term growth path
The company has been deeply engaged in the RF front-end field for more than ten years and has a leading advantage in the RF front-end segment in China. It is one of the RF device providers of a few benchmarking international leading enterprises in China. At present, the company's products have covered RF switches, LNA and other discrete devices, lfem, diffem, lnabank and ldifem diversity receiving modules that can realize complete receiving applications, and are applied to the main transmitting module l-pamif and WiFi terminal module WiFi of 5gnr. Among them, the receiving module has achieved rapid volume. In the first half of 2021, the total revenue was 662 million yuan, accounting for 28.06%, The launch of l-pamif in 2021 means that the company has achieved entry into the field of RF main module, and the prototype of comprehensive product layout in the field of RF front-end has been presented. At present, the product is in the stage of sample delivery and promotion, and it is expected to enter mass production in the first quarter of 2022.
The factory of SAW filter wafer manufacturing and RF module packaging test project invested by the company is expected to be officially put into use by the end of 2021. According to our research on the gradual evolution of RF module integration, saw filter plays a vital role in moving towards higher integrated receiving module and switching into transmitting module, The company's layout of SAW filters is expected to become the key to breaking the situation, driving the growth of its product categories in an array and combination manner. We believe that the company's construction of filter production and module packaging test production line will help it break through the bottleneck of high-end filter capacity shortage, improve its RF module mass production capacity, drive its performance to achieve sustained growth, and the company's long-term growth path planning is clear.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.815 billion, RMB 6.975 billion and RMB 9.185 billion respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 6.41, RMB 8.37 and RMB 10.45 respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 47, 36 and 29 times respectively, giving the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Downstream industry prosperity downside risk, investment project progress less than expected risk, industry competition risk, overseas policy change risk, etc.
