\u3000\u3000 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176)
The company issued a pre increase announcement of 21fy performance. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 21fy is expected to increase by 3.38-4.59 billion yuan to 5.80-7 billion yuan compared with 20fy, yoy + 140% ~ 190%; We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is expected to be 1.49-2.7 billion, qoq-13% ~ 58% (median 2.1 billion, QoQ + 23%). Net profit deducted from non attributable parent company at 21fy increased by 2.91-2.88 billion to 4.86-5.83 billion compared with that at 20fy, yoy + 150% ~ 200%; We estimate that 21q4 deduction of non attributable net profit is 910-1.88 billion, qoq-37% ~ 31% (median 1.39 billion, qoq-3%). Based on the median performance, the non deduction performance of 21fy and 21q4 slightly exceeded our expectations under the background of rising costs of raw materials such as natural gas and more falling prices of 21q4 electronic cloth.
Under the background of rising raw fuel costs and falling electronic cloth prices, the median non performance of 21q4 deduction slightly exceeded expectations
Combined with the characteristics of rigid full capacity production, the effective capacity of 21q4 company has basically not changed month on month. We expect the production and sales of roving and electronic cloth to be basically stable month on month. Considering the cost changes such as natural gas, we expect that 21q4 company's unit production cost will increase month on month. From the perspective of price, according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of 21q4 roving ton is 6111 yuan, QoQ + 178 yuan / + 3.0%, which is roughly the same as the latest price of 6075 yuan; The average price of 21q4 electronic cloth per meter is 7.5 yuan, qoq-1.3 yuan / - 14.8%, and the latest price has dropped to 6.0 yuan. 21q3 company began to accrue incentive expenses (the "excess profit sharing scheme (2021-2023)" announced by the company in 21 / 08 began to be implemented in 21 years). We expect that 21q4 may still accrue a large amount. Under the background that the 21q4 cost is under pressure to increase, the average price of electronic cloth has dropped significantly, and the accrued expenses are still large, the median value of the company's 21q4 deduction of non parent net profit decreased only slightly month on month, slightly exceeding our and market expectations. It is speculated that 21q4 roving products\' export proportion may increase month on month (driving the average price of roving to increase better than the industry), lean production or partially hedging the rising pressure of raw fuel costs, indicating the company's excellent management ability and high-quality product portfolio.
Continuing the previous view, we are optimistic about the sustainability of the high prosperity of the glass fiber industry
We believe that the glass fiber industry may gradually enter the stage of obvious weakening of cycle attributes. The core lies in the change of supply side, and the new supply has a significant impact or become a past tense, which is mainly reflected in: 1) the base of industrial production capacity has increased, and the impact kinetic energy of new supply has weakened; 2) Under the background of dual control of energy consumption, the implementation of new glass fiber production capacity increases policy disturbance variables; 3) The glass fiber association is also guiding the orderly expansion of production capacity, and its thinking has changed compared with that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. On the other hand, the demand is elastic in the short term (we expect exports and automobiles in 22 years). At the same time, we are optimistic about its growth sustainability (wind power yarn, increased penetration of new energy vehicles, etc.). The industry has high business continuity or good continuity.
Jushi's leading position is stable, its growth can be expected, its governance is optimized, and its "buy" rating is maintained
As a global leader in roving and electronic cloth, Jushi has an advantage in cost. Firmly promote cost reduction and efficiency increase, capacity expansion and strong execution. Thermoplastic yarn, wind power yarn and electronic cloth are the three main force areas during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the added value of the overall products may increase steadily. The leading advantages continue to strengthen, and the growth is also worth looking forward to. In addition, the company defined the excess profit sharing scheme for the first time on 21 / 08, which is of positive significance to strengthen the company's cohesion / enthusiasm / strategy implementation effect. Based on more non economic profits and losses in 21 years and more optimistic expectations for the improvement of the company's management efficiency, we slightly raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 21-23 years is 63 / 65 / 75 (the previous value is 57 / 64 / 7.4 billion), YoY + 161% / 3% / 15%, and the current price corresponds to only 11x PE in 22 years. Considering the leading position and growth of the company, we recognize and give the company the 22-year target pe20x, and raise the target price to 32.39 yuan, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the incremental supply of glass fiber exceeded expectations; Demand growth is less than expected; Electronic cloth competition exceeded expectations; The forecast data are the preliminary calculation results, and the specific data are subject to the annual report of 2021.
