\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Core view
Event: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021.
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 6.60-7.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.6% – 27.4%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about RMB 5.60-6.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% – 39.4%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1.32-2.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5% – 140.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about RMB 1.02-2.12 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 131.2% – 379.5%. In 2021, the company overcame the adverse factors such as chip shortage, rising raw material prices and repeated epidemics, achieved steady growth in annual performance, and performed well in the fourth quarter.
Guangben’s sales are slightly under pressure, and the introduction of new models such as e: NP1 is expected to boost sales. Guangben sold 780300 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%. In 2021, the annual sales of accord series, Binzhi series, haoying series, fit and Odyssey will be 201000, 174000, 166000, 96000 and 43000 respectively. From 2022, guangben will fully introduce the E: n pure electric brand. The first pure electric vehicle type E: NP1 based on the intelligent pure electric architecture e: n architecture is expected to be listed in the first half of 2022. Five pure electric vehicles will be launched in succession in the next five years to continuously expand the pure electric vehicle product matrix. It is expected that the chip supply will gradually return to normal in 2022, and new models such as e: NP1 are expected to help promote the recovery of this sales volume.
Guangfeng’s sales picked up and continued to accelerate the pace of new energy transformation. Guangfeng sold 828000 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. In 2021, Camry will sell 218000 vehicles, Highlander 108000 vehicles and leiling 230000 vehicles; Willanda sold 131000 vehicles a year, a year-on-year increase of 76%. In the first quarter of 2022, Guangfeng will launch new models such as compact SUV fenglanda and luxury medium-sized SUV Weisa. The first model bz4x of Toyota BZ pure electric series will be introduced to the Chinese market at the beginning of 2022. Guangfeng continues to accelerate the pace of new energy transformation. It is expected that a number of new energy models listed in 2022 will continue to contribute increment to Guangfeng.
The independent sales volume of GAC increased steadily, and the sales volume of EA doubled. GAC independently sold 324200 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In terms of new energy vehicles, GAC ea’an sold 120200 vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, and the annual sales doubled. In terms of new cars, in January 2022, ai’an will launch modified models such as aion SPLUS and aion LX plus. According to the company’s disclosure, at the beginning of 2022, the total production capacity of ea’an will be increased from 100000 vehicles / year to 200000 vehicles / year. Subsequently, the production capacity construction project of the second plant will be implemented, with a planned production capacity of 200000 vehicles / year. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2022, and the annual production capacity will be further increased to 400000 after being put into operation. It is expected that after the expansion, EA can fully respond to the demand for order growth and help the company maintain steady growth in sales of new energy vehicles.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Slightly adjust the expense rate. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.67, 1.00 and 1.15 yuan respectively (the original 0.72, 1.00 and 1.15 yuan). The chip will affect the profit. According to the 22-year PE valuation and with reference to the valuation of comparable companies, the company will be given 21 times PE in 2022, the target price will be 21 yuan, and the buy rating will be maintained.
Risk tips
The sales volume of GAC passenger cars, Guangfeng, guangben and guangfeike is lower than the expected risk, and the demand of the passenger car industry is lower than the expected risk
