\u3000\u3000 Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) (688033)
Event: on the evening of January 11, the company issued a private placement plan. The company plans to issue no more than 134 million non-public shares to specific objects and raise no more than 2.369 billion yuan for the industrialization construction project of high-performance carbon ceramic actuator plate (the proposed investment amount is 1.319 billion yuan), the construction project of automatic intelligent preparation production line of carbon material products preform (the proposed investment amount is 350 million yuan) and supplementary working capital (700 million yuan).
Auto carbon ceramic brake disc may further penetrate, seize market opportunities and layout in advance. Compared with the traditional cast iron brake disc, carbon ceramic brake disc has the advantages of lightweight, high temperature resistance and wear resistance. At the same time, it also avoids the problem that the traditional metal disc is easy to rust. Carbon ceramic brake disc has become an important research direction of lightweight, high braking efficiency and all environment applicable friction materials. It is recognized as a new generation of ideal brake materials and the main development direction of automotive high-end brake products.
The future target market of the company's carbon ceramic brake disc is mainly in the new installation (including new energy vehicles, medium and high-end passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and special vehicles) and automobile aftermarket (automobile modification). According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, as of November 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 1.7 times year-on-year respectively, and the market penetration reached 12.7%. On the one hand, carbon ceramic brake disc is of great significance to solve the lightweight of new energy vehicles and improve braking stability, and its configuration proportion in vehicles will gradually increase. At present, Tesla launched its carbon ceramic brake kit in 2021, leading the brake upgrading trend of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, with policy support and technological upgrading, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be further improved. Therefore, we believe that the rapid development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile and the gradual opening of the automotive aftermarket space will lay a good foundation for the consumption of the company's high-performance carbon ceramic brake products, and the gradual implementation of the production capacity of 150000 sets / year will also bring considerable development to the company's performance.
Go deep into the front-end carbon material preforms to jointly improve profitability and production management efficiency. In the early stage, the company has completed the construction of 2000 ton carbon carbon composite product production line plant and prefabricated phase I plant in Jiangyou Industrial Park. Relying on previous experience, the company will further expand the production capacity of preforms and improve the production capacity of preforms related to carbon thermal field and rocket engine throat lining to 55000 pieces / year. Carbon fiber preform is the most basic structural reinforcement of carbon matrix composites. The preform with specific shape is made of long fiber or short cut fiber of carbon fiber through textile, weaving or other methods. It is the key reinforcement skeleton of composites.
Through the automatic and intelligent preparation of the production line upgrade layout of carbon material products preforms, the production efficiency of the production line will be increased by three times. At the same time, the company can flexibly adjust the output progress of different preforms according to the actual situation of its own business, reasonably formulate production plans, and improve the collaborative management ability among businesses, so as to further improve the profitability. From the downstream market, the demand for photovoltaic thermal field materials is still large. At present, the support of carbon neutralization policy and the prosperity of photovoltaic industry continue to be high. Driven by the continuous expansion of silicon wafer production, regular consumption and replacement and the improvement of the permeability of carbon carbon composites in the thermal field system, the expansion of preform production will support the rapid growth of carbon composites.
Investment suggestion: the company's main business development is sustained and stable. In the medium term, relying on new materials such as carbon and carbon ceramics, the company will layout new high growth tracks, cultivate military business for a long time, improve comprehensive competitiveness, and the performance can grow steadily. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 240 / 38 / 530 million in 2021-23, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.54/0.85/1.18 and PE of 44 / 28 / 20 times, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of railway investment is less than expected, and the risk of new business development is less than expected.
