\u3000\u3000 Gl Tech Co.Ltd(300480) (300480)
Acquire LP + LPB and hold ADT, and Guangli helps semiconductor dicing machine realize domestic commercialization. Gl Tech Co.Ltd(300480) started from coal safety monitoring business and established an industry-leading position with core technical strength, with a gross profit margin of 70%. From 2016 to 2021, it acquired LP company, the inventor of semiconductor dicing machine, and LPB, the core component of dicing machine, and controlled the third largest dicing machine company in the world. Israel ADT entered the field of semiconductor rear channel sealing and testing equipment dicing machine, becoming the only company in the world and the only company in China with both dicing machine and air spindle technology. In 2021, the company realized the rapid transformation from scratch and from 1 to N, forming a strategic layout in which the security monitoring business and semiconductor equipment business go hand in hand.
The dicing machine market is highly monopolized overseas, and the rapid development of China's sealing and testing industry brings a breaking opportunity. According to semi's prediction, the global semiconductor packaging equipment market will be about US $6.99 billion in 2021. According to China economic intelligence network, dicing machines account for about 15% of the global semiconductor packaging equipment market structure. Assuming a constant proportion, the market scale of dicing machine equipment, blades and other consumables accounts for about 6:4. It is estimated that the overall market space of dicing machine + blades and other consumables will be about US $1.748 billion, about RMB 11.184 billion in 2021. The global dicing machine market is highly monopolized by overseas manufacturers disco and Tokyo precision. In 2020, disco's global market share exceeded 70%. In addition to ADT's share of less than 5%, most of the other market shares in China's dicing equipment market are also occupied by disco and Tokyo precision. The share of domestic manufacturers is very low and there is great room for import substitution.
The self-developed dicing machine has achieved a technological breakthrough, and the localized model has entered the expansion harvest period. Through overseas mergers and acquisitions, the company has fully mastered the key technologies from dicing machine equipment to core parts air spindle, and has accumulated rich customer market resources. The company actively carries out fixed growth projects (with an annual capacity of 500 dicing machines) and convertible bond projects (with an annual capacity of 5200 spindles) to promote the construction of China's production base. The R & D and production layout based on China and radiating the world is gradually taking shape. With the smooth launch of localized models 6230, 8230 and 6110, and the limited production capacity and backlog of orders of overseas leading manufacturers, the company is the only advantageous dicing equipment supplier in China, directly benchmarking overseas leaders, and ushering in the best window period for domestic alternative development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The first coverage is given a "buy" rating. We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 126 million, RMB 252 million and RMB 390 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.47, RMB 0.94 and RMB 1.45 respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE values of 68.01, 33.82 and 21.88 times from 2021 to 2023 respectively. We are optimistic that the company's self-developed localized dicing models and consumables will rapidly enhance its competitive advantage by benefiting from factors such as technological breakthrough and cost reduction, usher in a good opportunity for domestic substitution under the condition of rapid industry growth and insufficient overseas leading production capacity, and further build a core equipment platform for semiconductor parts based on the self-research and expansion of the air main shaft of core parts, Open space for future growth.
Risk tips
The growth of semiconductor packaging and testing industry, the capacity expansion of dicing machine and spindle, and the fierce competition in the industry.
