\u3000\u3000 Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) (600919)
Event:
On January 11, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 63.771 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 19.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%.
Comments:
Revenue growth remained relatively high, and profit growth increased slightly month on month. The year-on-year growth rates of Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) revenue and net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 were 22.6% and 30.7% respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were -2.12 and 0.21pct respectively compared with the first three quarters of 21 years. Among them, the year-on-year growth rates of 21q4 single quarter revenue and parent net profit were 17.1% and 31.5% respectively, with changes of -6.29 and 17.98pct respectively compared with the same period of the previous year. The growth rate at the revenue side slowed down but remained relatively high. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company mainly benefited from the slowdown in the growth of operating expenses. It is expected that the improvement of credit cost will be the main driver. The year-on-year growth rate of operating expenses in 2021 will be 5.96%, down 3.37pct compared with the first three quarters of 21 years.
The expansion speed of the asset side is stronger month on month, and the credit growth rate is still high. By the end of 2021, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) total assets had a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0%, down 1.99pct compared with the end of 21q3, but the month on month growth rate of total assets increased by 0.24pct compared with the end of 21q3, reflecting that the expansion of 21q4 was higher than that of 21q3. Considering that the year-on-year growth rate of total assets at the end of 2020 is 3.58pct higher than that of 20q3, and the slowdown of total assets growth at the end of 2021 may have the impact of the high base of the previous year, it is speculated that the company will increase its table expansion after 20q4 share allotment funds are in place; At the end of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of loans was 16.5%, down 0.53pct month on month, but increased by 1.04pct year-on-year, and the credit growth rate was still high. In terms of asset structure, 21q4 increased loans by 23.242 billion yuan, an increase of 21.682 billion yuan month on month, non credit assets by 12.537 billion yuan, an increase of 28.145 billion yuan month on month. 21q4 company strengthened its allocation of non credit assets.
Non performing loans showed a "double drop", and the provision coverage rate rose to 308%. At the end of 2021, the balance of Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) non-performing loans was about 15.1 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of about 200 million yuan, and the non-performing loan ratio was 1.08%, with a year-on-year and month on month decrease of 24bp and 4bp respectively, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) non-performing loans achieved "double decline", and the non-performing loan ratio has improved significantly quarter by quarter since the second half of 20 years. The provision coverage ratio increased by 12.19 PCT to 307.7% month on month, and the loan allocation ratio increased by about 0.04 PCT to 3.34% month on month. The company's risk offset ability was further enhanced.
There is a large space for convertible bonds to convert into shares, and the company has great potential growth momentum. By the end of 2021, only 691000 yuan of the company's 20 billion yuan convertible bonds had been converted into shares. At this stage, the conversion price and positive share price of Bank of Jiangsu's convertible bonds are 6.37 and 6.44 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding conversion value is about 101.10 yuan. It is expected that the company will realize the conversion in an orderly manner in 2022. Under static calculation, if the core tier 1 capital is included in the proportion of 5% ~ 10%, the company's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio still has 6BP ~ 12bp to improve. With the consolidation of the capital base, the company's business space will be expanded and its performance will have greater potential growth momentum.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the central economic work conference sent an obvious signal of "stable growth". The "wide credit" will be the foothold of "stable growth", and the high-end manufacturing industry will be an important starting point of "wide credit". Considering the company's deep cultivation in economically developed areas such as Jiangsu and its moat in high-end manufacturing loan business, it is expected that Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) credit is expected to maintain "volume increase and price level". Therefore, we raised the EPS forecast for 2021-2023 to 1.33 yuan (up 1.8%) / 1.62 yuan (up 0.4%) / 1.93 yuan (up 0.3%), and the current stock price corresponding to Pb is 0.62/0.55/0.49 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk tip: the credit is not as good as expected, and the downward pressure on the economy is increasing.
