\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
The company issued a performance forecast. In 2021, it realized a net profit of RMB 6.6 billion ~ 7.6 billion, yoy + 11% ~ + 27% (net profit of RMB 5.6 billion ~ 6.7 billion after deduction, yoy + 16% ~ + 39%), equivalent to EPS of RMB 0.64 ~ 0.73, and the company’s performance exceeded the market expectation.
With the launch of new cars and capacity expansion, the company’s sales of joint ventures and independent brands are expected to continue to grow in 2022. Although the supply chain risk still exists, the impact is expected to gradually decline. We expect the net profit of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to reach 7.1 billion yuan, 9.09 billion yuan and 10.87 billion yuan respectively, yoy + 19%, + 27.6% and + 19.6%; EPS is 0.69 yuan, 0.88 yuan and 1.05 yuan. At present, the corresponding P / E of A-Shares in 2022 and 2023 is 16.5 times and 13.8 times respectively, and the corresponding P / E of H shares is 7.7 times and 6.4 times respectively. It is recommended to “buy” ah shares.
The company’s annual performance exceeded the expected growth: in 2021, the company realized a net profit of RMB 6.6 billion ~ 7.6 billion, yoy + 11% ~ + 27% (net profit after deduction is RMB 5.6 billion ~ 6.7 billion, yoy + 16% ~ + 39%), equivalent to EPS of RMB 0.64 ~ 0.73, and the company’s performance exceeded the market expectation. Quarter by quarter, the company Q4 achieved a net profit of RMB 1.32 billion ~ 2.32 billion, yoy + 37% ~ + 140% (net profit after deduction of non-profit of RMB 1.02 billion ~ 2.12 billion, yoy + 131% ~ + 379%), equivalent to EPS of RMB 0.13 ~ 0.22. The company’s annual net profit achieved positive growth, mainly because the sales of Guangzhou Toyota, SAIC passenger cars and ai’an new energy performed well, driving the overall sales volume of the company to increase by 4.9% year-on-year; At the same time, the company effectively improved its operating efficiency through product structure adjustment, strengthening cost control and other measures, so that the overall performance exceeded expectations.
In 2021, the company’s sales growth was better than that of the industry, with yoy + 11.8%; in December 2021, the company sold 234000 vehicles, yoy + 11.8%, mom + 4.3%. In terms of branches, Guangzhou Toyota sold 98000 vehicles a month, yoy + 36.5% and mom + 15.9%. The impact of the supply chain was further reduced, and the sales volume increased significantly month on month; Guangzhou Honda sells 78000 vehicles, yoy-3.5%, mom + 0.9%; The monthly sales of GAC passenger cars are 32000, yoy + 2.2%, mom-9.6%, and the monthly sales of new car Yingbao exceed 10000, which is in short supply; Ea’an new energy sells 14500 vehicles per month, mom-3.6%, yoy + 98%.
From January to December, the company sold 2.14 million complete vehicles, yoy + 4.9%. Among them, Guangzhou Toyota has sold 828000 vehicles, yoy + 8.2%. The sales of star products Camry, willanda and hanlanda continue to grow. This year, fenglanda and willsa will be listed one after another, and the product matrix will be more perfect; Guangzhou Honda sold 780000 vehicles, yoy-3.2%. GAC has sold 324000 passenger cars in total, with yoy + 10.4%. The products will be fully upgraded in 2022, and the sales of new M8, gs8 and GS4 can be expected; The cumulative sales volume of ea’an new energy is 120000, yoy + 101.8%. Aionlxplus equipped with ultra long life battery in January has been listed, and the brand competitiveness has been further improved. With the support of a variety of new products from joint ventures and independent brands, the company is expected to achieve the sales growth target of 15% in 2022.
Profit forecast: we expect the net profit of the company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to reach 7.1 billion yuan, 9.09 billion yuan and 10.87 billion yuan respectively, yoy + 19%, + 27.6% and + 19.6%; EPS is 0.69 yuan, 0.88 yuan and 1.05 yuan. At present, the corresponding P / E of A-Shares in 2022 and 2023 is 16.5 times and 13.8 times respectively, and the corresponding P / E of H shares is 7.7 times and 6.4 times respectively. It is recommended to “buy” ah shares.
