\u3000\u3000 Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) (002991)
Events
On the evening of January 11, 2022, the company announced that as of January 11, 2022, the company had repurchased 1255793 shares, accounting for 1.35% of the total share capital of the company (including repurchased shares in the special account), the highest transaction price was 75.48 yuan / share, the lowest transaction price was 45.22 yuan / share, and the total amount paid was 60.053 million yuan (excluding transaction costs). The actual repurchase time of this repurchase is from August 23, 2021 to January 7, 2022. This repurchase conforms to the company’s established repurchase plan, and the share repurchase plan has been implemented
Key investment points
Completion of share repurchase or equity incentive
On August 9, 2021, the company issued the announcement of repurchasing shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive plan. It plans to repurchase shares in the amount of 60-120 million yuan in the next 12 months, and the repurchase price shall not exceed 85.09 yuan / share (inclusive).
The actual repurchase time of the company’s repurchase is from August 23, 2021 to January 7, 2022. 1255800 shares are repurchased, accounting for 1.35% of the total share capital (including shares in the repurchase special account). The maximum transaction price is 75.48 yuan / share, the minimum transaction price is 45.22 yuan / share, and the total amount paid is 60.053 million yuan (excluding transaction expenses). We expect to implement the equity incentive plan in the future, bind the interests of senior managers and key personnel, and improve the overall enthusiasm of the company.
The influencing factors of community group purchase are weakened and diversified channels are arranged
In 2021q1-q3, the company’s revenue was 856 million yuan, an increase of 7.8% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 77 million yuan, with a decrease of 38%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q3 was 312 million yuan, an increase of 3% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 40 million yuan, a decrease of 27% at the same time. The performance in the third quarter was average, mainly due to the following reasons: 1) the impact of community group buying. At present, the influencing factors of community group purchase are weakened, and we expect the company’s offline channels to be gradually improved. 2) In 2021h1, the sales organization will be adjusted on a large scale, and digital regional sales directors will be introduced, which will have a partial impact on sales in the short term. 3) The impact of the price increase in the second quarter was transmitted to the third quarter. 4) The prices of palm oil and melon seed kernel, the company’s bulk raw materials, increased significantly, increasing the procurement cost of raw materials.
At present, in addition to steadily developing super channels for developers, the company has accelerated the layout of new channels, including BC store system, fresh fruit store system, community group purchase, online live broadcast, etc. At present, the company’s online channel revenue accounts for 14% and offline channel revenue accounts for 82%. Among them, the revenue of offline channel bulk products accounts for 55% and that of bagged products accounts for 45%. In addition, the mustard flavored Macadamia fruit that Sam’s Club cooperates with the company through dealers is in good sales at present, and the other upgraded flavored nuts will be launched in the market after the Spring Festival.
The third kind is the basic plate, and the future power flavor nuts
The company’s products are divided into green pea series, melon seed series, broad bean series, comprehensive nuts and bean fruit series and other five series of products. Among them, green pea series, melon seed kernel series and broad bean series are the old three classic products, and the revenue of the old three is expected to account for more than 60%.
From 2020h2 to 2021h1, the company successively launched a variety of products such as flavor nuts, peanuts and corn to further enrich the product matrix. The comprehensive nut and bean fruit series include comprehensive nut ABC package, comprehensive bean fruit ABC package, shrimp bean fruit, cashew nut, Macadamia fruit, walnut, Padan wood, Bigan fruit and other varieties of products. Other series include peanut, Guoba, fried rice, orchid beans, dried fruit, cereal, corn, orchid beans and other varieties of products. At present, the company has completed the upgrading and R & D of flavor nuts, and dozens of new products in Anyang factory have been put into operation. We expect that flavor nuts will be the key development direction of the company in the future.
Profit forecast
At present, the company’s main products are divided into three categories: seed products include melon seed kernel, broad bean, green pea, peanut, etc; Nuts and kernels include walnuts, cashews, padanmu, Macadamia, etc; Cereal pastry includes fruit, oats, Guoba, Mahua, rice pastry, jiangmi strips, etc. We estimate that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.53/2.28/2.93 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 47 / 31 / 24 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, risk of rising raw material prices, increased competition for taste nuts, risk of reducing business overload traffic, etc
