The curtain of aluminum alloy lightweight materials opened. With the continuous promotion of the "double carbon" goal, the demand for energy conservation and environmental protection in the automotive industry has become increasingly urgent. Countries have reached a consensus on automotive energy conservation and emission environmental protection. China's carbon dioxide emission targets are consistent with those of developed countries in the world. By continuously improving the exhaust emission standards of fuel vehicles, raising the target of lightweight and weight reduction, and accelerating the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, China has forced the development of lightweight vehicles. Aluminum alloy has advantages in performance, density and price. It is an ideal lightweight material at present. With the gradual prominence of the lightweight advantages of aluminum alloy, its single vehicle consumption in automobiles is increasing. According to IAI data, the current aluminum consumption of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is 145 and 173kg / vehicle respectively. It is expected that by 2025, the aluminum consumption of single vehicle will reach 230 and 250kg / vehicle respectively, with a corresponding increase of 34% and 44%.
The integrated die casting process accelerates the explosion. Tesla modely rear base sector was first formed by integrated die casting. This technology replaces the traditional stamping + welding method of body manufacturing. About 70 parts are die cast into two large die castings at one time by high-pressure die casting machine. The number of connection points is reduced from 700800 to about 50, which can save 40% of the cost. In addition, the implementation of the integrated die-casting process simplifies the welding, assembly and other links in the manufacturing process. The implementation and promotion of the integrated die-casting process can reduce the unit investment of the vehicle factory by 55% and the workshop area by 35%. Benefiting from the advent of super large die-casting machines, at present, all main engine manufacturers and major parts manufacturers have accelerated the layout of super large die-casting machines. The accelerated layout of large die-casting machines and the gradual emergence of the cost advantage of the integrated die-casting process will accelerate the outbreak of the integrated die-casting process in the automotive industry chain.
Die casting materials may become core barriers. The maturity of integrated die casting process will lead to the rapid growth of the demand for heat free alloy materials. The heat-free alloy does not need high-temperature solid solution treatment and artificial aging. The alloy with high strength and toughness can be obtained only through natural aging, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional heat-treated alloy, such as easy deformation of thin-wall position of casting, high cost and not suitable for large die-casting machine. At present, there are very few enterprises with material technology and they are mainly concentrated overseas. China Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) has mature technology. Compared with equipment and process links, the material end may become the core barrier in the outbreak period of integrated die casting.
The market space of heat-free alloy is huge. Considering the maintenance and insurance costs of vulnerable parts, the consumption of heat-free alloy is assumed by scenario. Pessimistic assumption, only used in the front, middle and rear floor of the car body, and the estimated consumption of a single car is 90kg; Neutral assumption can be applied to the front, middle and rear floor of the car body and the core structure frame of the car body. The estimated consumption of a single car is 218kg; The optimistic assumption is that if the roof and radiator can also be used, the estimated consumption of a single car is 230kg. Assuming that there are 30 million new energy vehicles in the world and the corresponding penetration rate is 43%, the penetration rate of heat-free alloy for core parts in the above scenario is 100%, and the market space of heat-free alloy for passenger cars (new energy + fuel) is expected to be about 1593 / 503 / 537.2 billion yuan under the pessimistic / neutral / optimistic assumption.
It is suggested to pay attention to the alloy faucet without heat treatment Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) . The company has applied for the patent of heat-free alloy material matched with the integrated die-casting process in 2020, breaking the foreign product monopoly and technical blockade in this field, and gradually realizing the market-oriented application and promotion of this material. The company's price of heat-free alloy can be reduced by 15% - 20% compared with the price of similar foreign materials. In addition, the company has a broad and stable customer market base for new energy vehicles. At present, it directly provides products and supporting services for many new energy vehicle enterprises such as Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng and Weima, and has completed the factory certification of an international leading new energy vehicle enterprise. Specific project cooperation will be carried out in the future. It will lay the foundation for the company to promote new energy and alloy products in the market.
Risk factors: the output and demand of new energy vehicles are lower than expected, the penetration rate of integrated die casting is lower than expected, and the accelerated rise of raw material prices inhibits terminal demand.
