The export data of phosphate fertilizer improved significantly in March. With the acceleration of legal inspection, the export of Q2 is expected to be better: according to Baichuan, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate in China in March 2021 was 102000 tons, an increase of 111% month on month, and the average export price was 770 us dollars / ton, an increase of 11% month on month; The export volume of diammonium phosphate was 379000 tons, an increase of 233% month on month, and the average export price was 727 US dollars / ton, an increase of 13% month on month. Due to the introduction of the “export legal inspection” policy, China’s phosphate fertilizer export volume has decreased significantly since November 2021. The export volume data in March 2022 has improved significantly, and the export price has reached a record high. According to Argus, the legal inspection time in Hubei will be accelerated from 50 to 60 days to 20 to 30 days, and the export declarations of producers along the river have increased recently. The export legal inspection speed is accelerated, while China’s spring ploughing is coming to an end, and the export of Q2 phosphate fertilizer is expected to be better.
The price difference of phosphate fertilizer at home and abroad is large, and the boom is expected to remain high under the tight global supply: according to Baichuan, at present, the price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate in Hubei is 3650 yuan / ton, the FOB bulk price in Morocco is 1266.5 dollars / ton (about 8229 yuan / ton), the price of 64% diammonium phosphate in Hubei is 3570 yuan / ton, the FOB bulk price in Morocco is 1237 dollars / ton (about 8037 yuan / ton), and the price difference of phosphate fertilizer at home and abroad is more than 4000 yuan / ton. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia restricted the export of chemical fertilizer, which exacerbated the tense situation of international phosphate fertilizer supply, and the international phosphate fertilizer price rose rapidly. China’s phosphate fertilizer inventory has continued to decline since the beginning of the year, and the overall supply is tight.
Due to the high cost of raw materials, the operating rate of Chinese phosphate fertilizer enterprises may be reduced: according to Baichuan, the international sulfur price continues to reach a new high. At present, the CIF price in China has reached US $476 / ton, up 57% compared with the beginning of 2022. The difficulty of import procurement has increased, and the sulfur inventory in the main port has fallen to a low level. The high price of phosphate rock continues to rise. At present, 30% of the price in Hubei is 730 yuan / ton, up 9% from the beginning of the year. Phosphate rock resources are in short supply, and the boom is expected to continue to rise. Meanwhile, the price of synthetic ammonia began to rise at the beginning of the year. At present, the ex factory price in Hubei is 4600 yuan / ton, up 23% from the beginning of the year. In March 2022, the operating rates of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 56.4% and 70.9% respectively, down 2.9pct and 1.3pct month on month. Under the high cost of phosphate fertilizer raw materials, Chinese enterprises may further reduce the operating rate.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , etc.
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, raw material price fluctuates, etc.
