View of this week: the first quarter of the year saw a good start in terms of installed capacity, and the year-round high growth can be expected
Wind power: the scale of new installation and bidding is considerable, and the price of wind turbine is stabilizing. In the first quarter of 2022, the newly installed capacity of wind power in China was about 7.9gw, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%. The industry officially passed the transition period from subsidy to parity, and the beginning of 2022 was good. In addition, according to our incomplete statistics, the bidding volume of wind turbines in China exceeded 16GW in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%. The cost reduction driven by the large-scale wind turbines is an important factor to promote the bidding volume of wind turbines in China. Under the current equipment and construction costs, the yield of wind power projects has been at a high level, the price competition in the industry has slowed down, and the bidding price of wind turbines has stabilized recently. With the support of early bidding projects and the promotion of policies, we expect that the installed capacity of wind power in China will rise sharply in 2022, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to increase quarter by quarter.
Photovoltaic: China's distributed installed capacity continues to improve, and there is a strong demand for overseas module inverters. In the first quarter of 2022, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation in China was about 13.2gw, with a year-on-year increase of 147.8%, of which nearly 70% was distributed. Considering the promotion of the whole county, two batches of large scenic bases and the gradual implementation of competitive distribution projects in all provinces in 2021, we believe that the installation of distributed and centralized photovoltaic is expected to be promoted together in 2022, and the high landscape of photovoltaic industry is expected to continue. At the same time, overseas photovoltaic demand also maintained a high level. In the first quarter, the export volume of Chinese components and inverters continued to rise, reaching 67.6/8.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 86% / 29%. In the first quarter, the demand for PV modules in India and Europe continued to increase year-on-year, which was significantly driven by the increase in the price of PV modules in the first quarter.
Market review this week: the power equipment sector continues to adjust in the 15th week of 2022
This week, the power equipment sector fell 6.9%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.7%. Among them, other power equipment sectors performed best (- 3.4%), photovoltaic equipment (- 7.3%) and battery (- 8.0%) sectors performed relatively poorly.
Industrial chain tracking: the price of lithium carbonate decreased and the price of photovoltaic industry chain stabilized
Lithium battery: affected by the decline in the operating rate of vehicle manufacturers, the statement of the Ministry of industry and information technology that it will moderately accelerate the progress of China's resource development and other factors, the price of lithium carbonate fell significantly this week, down more than 5% in a single week, and the price of cathode material also decreased accordingly. In addition, the price of negative electrode materials remained basically stable, the price of electrolyte decreased, and the price of wet diaphragm increased slightly.
Photovoltaic: the price of 182mm cells rose slightly by 0.4% this week, and the prices of other links stabilized. Driven by the strong demand at home and abroad, the demand for silicon materials is good in the short term, while the new supply lags slightly, and the price of silicon materials remains high. Under the condition of good overall operating rate of the industry, the price of 182mm battery chips rose this week, and the prices of silicon materials, silicon chips and components stabilized.
Risk tips: changes in new energy industry policies, supply chain bottlenecks lead to lower than expected demand, intensified market competition leads to decline in industry profitability, etc.
