\u3000\u30001. Recommended combination:
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 031 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 6011 Shenzhen Universe (Group) Co.Ltd(000023) 53 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points:
Photovoltaic equipment: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) proposed 1200mwhjt pilot project, which has won a large order of 4.8gw and accelerated the industrialization of hjt
Recently Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) published the EIA report. The construction project is the 1200mW pilot project of Xixian Central Research Institute phase I. The equipment of the pilot line is laser cutting machine, cashmere washing machine, PECVD, PVD, screen printing machine, etc. based on this, we judge that the construction capacity is the hjt technology line. (1) For hjt technology, the significance of the construction of hjt pilot line in Longji is greater than the actual output expansion. In the past, the production expansion of hjt technology has been promoted by new players in the industry. The construction of Longji pilot line can be understood as a change in the attitude of photovoltaic leaders towards hjt. (2) For Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , the pilot test line will continue to optimize hjt technical indicators to lay the foundation for subsequent large-scale production expansion.
Reliance Industries (REC parent company) plans to purchase 8 pieces of hjt whole line equipment from Singapore Maiwei, with a capacity of 600MW / piece, totaling 4.8gw. The 4.8gw large order will be supplied to rec India, and we expect rec Singapore orders to land in the future. We believe that 2022 will be a year for hjt to accelerate cost reduction and efficiency increase. The expectation of 20-30gw production expansion of the whole industry in 2022 will remain unchanged. The production expansion of the whole industry will break out in 2023 & major mainstream factories will start large-scale production expansion, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) as the leader of hjt whole line equipment, has the greatest flexibility. Investment suggestion: recommend Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ; Recommended battery device Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ; Component equipment recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommend Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) .
Semiconductor equipment: TSMC’s 2022q1 performance exceeded market expectations and actively laid out local semiconductor equipment enterprises that fell
The semiconductor equipment sector experienced a sharp correction in 2022. The core lies in the market’s concern about the downstream prosperity. We believe that the demand for new energy is still strong, and there is no need to be pessimistic about the prosperity of the semiconductor industry in 2022. 1) Globally, TSMC achieved a revenue of US $17.6 billion in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of + 36%, exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, TSMC’s revenue target in 2022q2 was US $17.6-18.2 billion, which verified the high prospect of the semiconductor industry. 2) For the Chinese market: taking new energy vehicles as an example, China sold 1.25 million vehicles in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of + 143%. The operating rate of wafer factories is still high, equipment bidding continues to be implemented, and the demand for semiconductors is still strong. The impact of the epidemic in Shanghai is mainly reflected in the logistics level, with certain volatility in the short term. At the transaction level, the valuation level of the semiconductor equipment sector is approaching the level at the end of 18 years, at the 7% mark of 17-22 years. Investment suggestions: focus on Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , shengmei Shanghai, Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) .
General automation: in March, the manufacturing industry was affected by the epidemic, and there was strong demand in emerging industries Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024)
The manufacturing industry fell back under the impact of the epidemic. In March 2022, the PMI index closed at 49.5%, down 0.7pct from the previous month. Under the impact of the epidemic, the efficiency of enterprise supply chain has been significantly reduced. In addition, factors such as the rise of commodity prices and the short-term contraction of external demand caused by geopolitics also have a negative impact on the supply and demand ends of the manufacturing industry.
Main products: 2022q1 industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output: 102000 sets, year-on-year + 10.2%; Among them, the output of 44000 units in March was + 16.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the strong demand of emerging downstream such as new energy. Machine tools maintained positive growth under the high base. The output of metal cutting machine tools was 60000 in March (year-on-year + 3.6%), and the cumulative year-on-year + 1.5% from January to March. As the core parts of machine tools, the orders of major enterprises are relatively full, and the production scheduling cycle is about 1-2 months (1 month under normal conditions). Investment suggestion: reducer recommendation Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Recommended cutting tools Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ; Recommendations for industrial automation Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ; Recommended machine tools Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , it is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) .
Construction machinery: optimistic about the gradual recovery of sales data, and pay attention to the valuation and repair space under the background of steady growth
In March 2022, the sales volume of excavator industry was 37085 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.1%, basically in line with the previous CME expectation of – 49%. The excavator industry fell sharply in March, mainly due to the ultra-high base in the same period and the impact of local epidemic on the commencement of downstream projects. With the epidemic under control, the operating rate rebounded and the sales data base decreased in the same period, we expect the year-on-year decline in sales of follow-up industries to narrow, and we are optimistic that the sales of construction machinery will gradually pick up under the background of steady growth throughout the year. On March 29 and April 6, the national Standing Committee proposed to “stick to the goal and put steady growth in a more prominent position” and “deploy the timely use of monetary policy tools”. Since the beginning of 2022, more than 60 cities have stabilized their real estate by reducing the qualification requirements for house purchase, reducing the proportion of down payment, relaxing loan requirements and reducing mortgage interest rates. The construction machinery sector has a lot of early correction, and the two downstream margins of infrastructure and real estate have been improved. The valuation has room for repair. Recommended: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) .
Elevator industry: the profitability is at the bottom, and the inflection point of the industry driven by the post real estate cycle appears
After benefiting from the real estate, the demand for urban rail transit is growing rapidly, and the inflection point of the industry is expected to appear. 1) Real estate: the real estate industry has entered the third round of easing period, with continuous favorable policies on the supply and demand side, continuous relaxation of house purchase policies in many places, and alleviating the financing difficulties of real estate enterprises. 2) Urban Rail Transit: China continues to increase investment in new infrastructure to further stimulate the growth of urban rail transit elevator demand. In terms of profitability, we judge that the profitability of the elevator industry is at the bottom, and there is little downward space in 2022.
The post service market is an important growth point of the industry and will open up long-term growth space. Globally, elevators have entered a “post market” era. Compared with overseas leaders, the post service business of local elevator enterprises is still in its infancy. As the world’s largest elevator market, the scale of China’s post service business market will be close to 100 billion yuan in 2025. Looking forward to the future, with the implementation of elevator maintenance standard policy, the maintenance market pattern is expected to be optimized; Superimposed with the concentration effect brought by the scale expansion of local enterprises, the maintenance business is expected to become an important growth point of the industry. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to a domestic elevator faucet, Ife Elevators Co.Ltd(002774) , Guangzhou Guangri Stock Co.Ltd(600894) , Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical Industry Co.Ltd(600835) , Zhejiang Meilun Elevator Co.Ltd(603321) .
Prompt that the investment risk of fixed assets is lower than that of the downstream market; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
