The IMF lowered its world economic growth forecast and international oil prices corrected this week. y] ] in the early part of the week, the EU planned to draft a plan to ban the import of Russian oil. At the same time, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field exacerbated the market’s concerns about supply. In addition, the market still considered that the export of Russian crude oil was restricted, investors’ concerns about tight oil supply intensified, and the price of raw oil rose. In the late part of the week, although the U.S. crude oil inventory plummeted, the International Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth forecast and warned of rising inflation, market concerns about the growth prospect of energy demand, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar exchange rate also put pressure on crude oil. The market weighed the impact of insufficient supply caused by sanctions against Russia and slow increase in energy demand on oil prices, and crude oil prices fluctuated and fell. On the 20th, the oil distribution closed at US $107.25/barrel, down 5.22% from the previous day, and NYMEX light crude oil closed at US $102.63/barrel on the 19th, down 4.61% from the previous day.
The pressure of shipping price and cost has decreased, which is good for overseas tire enterprises. As of April 21, the coastal container freight rate index (TDI) has decreased by 1.85% compared with the previous week, and the coastal container freight rate has ushered in an inflection point; The Southeast Asian container index fell 1.66% month on month (MOM) last week, down 35.97% from the highest point on January 7, 2022, and fell back to the level at the end of last year. The international shipping cost is expected to further decline, which is good for overseas tire enterprises.
In terms of potash fertilizer, the price rise momentum is still in progress, and the national development and Reform Commission has put forward a package of policies to ensure spring farming. Meng Wei, deputy director of the Political Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission and spokesman, responded to the obstruction of the circulation of potash fertilizer in the overseas market, saying that at present, the supply of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer in China is generally guaranteed, and potash fertilizer needs to be partially imported to meet agricultural demand. This week (as of April 18), the wholesale price index of potassium chloride closed at 443636, a year-on-year increase of 83.23%, but a month on month increase of 1.74%. At present, the price of potassium fertilizer is still at a high level, which is good for relevant enterprises. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the prices of phosphate fertilizer both at home and abroad are rising, and the price gap of monoammonium phosphate is widening. On April 21, the mainstream price of monoammonium phosphate closed at 3680 yuan / ton, an increase of 31.43% over the beginning of the year, and the mainstream price of diammonium phosphate in the market closed at 3980 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.57% over the beginning of the year; This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate in China increased by 2.22% month on month, and the price of diammonium phosphate was flat; The price gap of monoammonium phosphate expanded from 237941 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 3986 yuan / ton. In terms of nitrogen fertilizer, spring ploughing agricultural fertilizer is coming to an end, the urea market as a whole is weak, and China’s quotation rises slightly. For manufacturers, most manufacturers have little pressure on production and sales. Although the current market atmosphere is general, manufacturers basically have a balanced production and sales. In terms of supply, China has frequent plant failures and unstable daily output. In terms of demand, as spring farming is coming to an end, agricultural demand has decreased, the demand for fertilizer in spring has begun to decline, and the demand for fertilizer in summer has been advancing slowly; In the industrial aspect, it is mainly on-demand procurement. The shipping link still restricts the circulation of goods in some areas, and the freight rate rises. As of April 20, the reference price of urea closed at 2880 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.63% over the previous week.
In terms of sweeteners, affected by the price fluctuation of upstream raw materials, the price of sweeteners fluctuated at a high level. DMF, the main raw material for the production of sucralose, kept rising from May 2021 to March 2022, from 10708 yuan / ton to 17017 yuan / ton in March, and then fell back to 14083 yuan / ton quoted on April 21. Affected by this, the current prices of mainstream sweeteners Acesulfame and sucralose are nearly doubled compared with those in 2019, but there is a slight correction after the decline of DMF price. The price of sugar was reported to be 1.39 million yuan / ton on the third day of the month, up 2.56% from that of 30000 yuan / ton on the third day of the month.
Risk factors: the risk of declining demand caused by macroeconomic depression; Risks of rising raw material costs or falling product prices; The risk of economic expansion policy falling short of expectations
Key target: Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) . According to the company’s production capacity planning, the company currently has production capacity under construction outside China, and the projects under construction in China are expected to reach production in 22 years. The annual production capacity will increase by 2.4 million all steel tires, 8.5 million semi steel tires and 10000 tons of off-road tires. Overseas Vietnam phase III (1 million all steel tires, 4 million half steel tires and 50000 tons of off-road tires) and Cambodia project (1.65 million all steel tires and 9 million half steel tires) are expected to be completed in 23 years. The adverse impact on the company in 21 years is expected to gradually subside; In terms of sea freight, the coastal container freight index (TDI) decreased by 1.85% month on month (MOM) compared with last week. The container freight index in Southeast Asia fell to the level at the end of last year, and the sea freight cost is expected to gradually reduce; In terms of raw materials, the quotation of upstream raw materials in the tire industry was stable this week. In addition, the company’s “liquid gold” has achieved technological breakthroughs and opened up new growth space.
\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 810。 The company is mainly engaged in cellulose ether, plant capsules and other products. The company’s overseas business accounts for more than half. In addition, the plant capsule is light in weight and large in volume, and the company is significantly affected by freight. The decline of sea freight will bring significant benefits to the company and repair the company’s valuation.
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 256。 The company has three major sectors: natural gas, coal chemical industry and coal. In terms of natural gas, the price rise is superimposed on the orderly expansion of Qidong LNG terminal, and the LNG business income is expected to continue to rise; Malang coal mine of the company is about to be put into operation, and the coal output is about to expand, bringing new increment to the company’s performance.
