April event: on the 20th, according to the report of PC game users in major markets released by the Japanese Research Institute game Age Research Institute, steam international became the largest market for steam, with an annual revenue of 1327.2 billion yen (about 65.996 billion yuan).
According to the report of PC game users in major markets released by the Japanese Research Institute game Age Research Institute, steam international has become the largest market for steam
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The potential market scale of end-to-end travel exceeded expectations, and the revenue scale of steam international version exceeded that of China’s end-to-end travel market. China’s Chinese mainland, Chinese mainland, Taiwan, USA, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Indonesia, Malaysia, Canada, Korea, India, Thailand and Singapore have been surveyed by the report. The Steam market share of the 14 hot regions / countries (China, mainland China, Germany, France, Indonesia, Canada, Korea, Thailand, Singapore) is 13272 yuan (66 billion 300 million yuan) in mainland China, and the United States ranks 423 billion 200 million (21 billion 100 million yuan) in the form of 423 billion 200 million yen. The following rankings are Indonesia (60.2 billion yen), Germany (56.4 billion yen), the United Kingdom (56.2 billion yen), India (49.8 billion yen) and South Korea (39.1 billion yen). According to the report on China’s game industry in 2021, the sales revenue of self-developed games in China in 2021 was 255819 billion yuan, including 58.8 billion yuan of PC client game market, 2.58 billion yuan of host game and 61.38 billion yuan of end game market. We believe that the report does not consider the national and regional revenue of steam International Edition. If the revenue scale is added, the market scale of end game in 2021 will be about 127.38 billion yuan, accounting for about 39.6%. According to the report, the statistical scope of the income scale is steam International China, and the consumption capacity of Chinese people in other outer regions is not counted (some game lock-in areas, such as Lost Ark, European and American clothes). If the consumption income of Chinese people in other regions is counted, the potential market scale of end game will be higher. More than half of the demand in the end game market overflows, and the demand space of the end game market may be seriously underestimated.
China’s end tour has been in a market environment of weak supply and strong demand for a long time. According to the in-depth “Chinese games come from end-to-end games, become from hand-to-hand games, and pay attention to the reverse” hand to end “trend” released by us on April 1, (1) on the demand side, we estimate that steam international service people will live 40-60 million people per month in 2021. According to the income scale caliber of gari statistics, the corresponding ARPU is about 11001650 yuan, far exceeding 384 yuan in the Chinese market, That is, most of the Chinese users spilling over to steam international are high-value hard core game users, and the number and intensity of demand in the end game market are relatively strong. (2) On the supply side, few domestic end games have been launched since 2016, and the most recent one is eternal robbery, which was launched last year. From the game approval in 2019, a total of 1570 games have passed the approval and obtained the version number, including 1462 mobile games and only 65 end games. Mobile games account for almost 93% of the reviewed games, while end games account for only about 4%. The end game market has been in a state of weak supply for a long time.
China’s game industry originates from end-to-end games and becomes mobile games. It pays attention to the reverse “hand to end” trend. In the era of end-to-end travel, China’s game industry focuses on learning. In the era of mobile travel, China’s game industry overtakes at the curve, and has experienced the dividend of high growth of mobile Internet users and the dividend of end-to-end IP to mobile travel. At present, all dividends are nearing the end. In the post mobile Internet era, game R & D companies mainly focus on the high-quality research and operation of mobile games, game going to sea, etc. As the largest game segment in early China, the end game market is not concerned by the industry. We believe that:
1. There is still demand in the end game industry. At present, the shrinking market scale is mainly due to the lack of high-quality content supply. Therefore, the head end game R & D manufacturers may reap large dividends by launching end games.
2. In the VR / AR era, companies with strong end game R & D strength may benefit. Large scale VR games are more similar to PC or host games, and have higher requirements on the overall quality of the game. Therefore, companies with end game R & D strength are expected to obtain the first mover advantage in the era of immersing in the Internet.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the game industry for a long time, and the end game market may be underestimated. China’s end travel is in the stage of weak supply and strong demand. Companies with end travel R & D strength and launch high-quality end travel are expected to reap the greatest dividends. Focus on leading game companies with experience in end game research and development, strong research and operation strength and rich IP and product reserves, such as [Netease], [Tencent], [ Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) ], [ Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) ], [ G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) ], [ Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co.Ltd(603258) ], etc. At the same time, pay attention to [ Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) ] with continuous transformation success and strong operation ability and high-quality game development ability. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the game industry.
Risk tips
Game version number risk, stricter industry regulatory policies, increased industry competition exceeding expectations, market demand falling short of expectations, end game product performance falling short of expectations and other risks.
