Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by – 3.87% and – 5.12% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by – 3.50%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (72 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 15.19% and – 25.61% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 8.15%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 3.50%, ranking 10th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, one of the 29 CITIC first-class industries rose. The top three industries were textile and clothing, public utilities and food and beverage, with an increase of 4.93%, – 0.85% and – 1.75% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 8.15%, ranking 8th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, three of the 29 CITIC first-class industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, banking and real estate, with an increase of 20.22%, 1.39% and 0.31% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were supermarkets, gold jewelry and trade, with increases of – 0.27%, – 2.84% and – 3.58% respectively. Since 2022, the top three sub industries in the retail sector are supermarkets, professional markets and department stores, with an increase of 3.97%, – 6.22% and – 8.05% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 32 companies rose, 2 companies were flat and 59 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.Ltd(000715) , Gansu Guofang Industry & Trade Group Limited By Share Ltd(601086) and New Hua Du Supercenter Co.Ltd(002264) , with an increase of 61.03%, 27.13% and 24.54% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 46 companies have increased, one company has remained unchanged and 46 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Zhongxing Shenyang Commercial Building Group Co.Ltd(000715) , Gome communications and Better Life Commercial Chain Share Co.Ltd(002251) , with an increase of 85.07%, 79.50% and 66.57% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The consumption data in March 2022 is weak, the social consumption data in March is lower than the market expectation, and the recently disclosed performance of retail companies in the first quarter of 2022 is also poor. We believe that the main reasons are: 1) the decline of Consumption Willingness and disposable income in the short term has restrained some consumption; 2) In March, the repeated outbreaks in many places had a certain impact on consumption. We hold a relatively conservative attitude towards the consumption of April and May Day golden week. Overall, there will still be great pressure on the performance of China’s consumption data in the first half of 2022. We look forward to the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption in the second half of the year. At present, we are still optimistic about Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) and others with high dividend yield. If some retail enterprises oversold after the disclosure of the first quarter report in 2022, investors are also advised to pay attention gradually. We are still relatively optimistic about the gold jewelry industry in the next few months. In view of the fact that the offline consumption data of gold category is better than that of jewelry inlay category, there may be a certain degree of differentiation in individual stocks of gold jewelry sub sector. Suggestions for next week: Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) .
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
