Key investment points
Since the beginning of the year, the sector has lagged behind the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index fell by 6.18%, the gem index fell by 6.66%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 4.19%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.87%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lagged behind the market by 2.31 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2022, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index has fallen by 15.83%, the gem index by 25.51%, the CSI 300 index by 15.79%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 13.17%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lags behind the market by 2.66%.
Event: 1) recently, Xinjiang Department of industry and information technology announced that Zhongzhong Hesheng, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) intends to build a new ultra-thin high transmittance photovoltaic glass manufacturing project with an annual output of 3 million tons (divided into two phases) for new energy equipment. The project is located in Xinjiang ganquanpu Industrial Park, with a design capacity of 9600 (8) × 1200) tons / day, and the planned ignition and commissioning time is June 2023. 2) According to Baichuan, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly this week, with a range of 100150 yuan / ton, and the market trend rose.
Comments:
1) industrial silicon leaders expand new photovoltaic business and create new profit growth points. Hesheng is a double leading enterprise of industrial silicon and silicone. Extending to the downstream of the industrial chain will help the company open up growth space. Zhongzhong Hesheng, a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to invest 17.5 billion to build a 200000 ton high-purity polysilicon project. The company will build new production capacity of silicon and photovoltaic glass, further implement the overall strategic plan to expand downstream, and lay a foundation for the rapid development of the company’s photovoltaic new energy business. 2) With the superposition of cost support and tight supply and demand, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise. On the supply side, according to Baichuan, the operating rate of ammonium industry was 53.95% on Monday, and the total weekly output was 216700 tons, with a slight decline in both operation and output compared with last week. On the demand side, China’s compound fertilizer market continued to operate at a high level and fluctuated. The upward transmission of upstream raw materials to the price of compound fertilizer was relatively smooth, and the local low-end price rose by 50 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials, the market price of phosphorus ore rises again, and the downstream phosphorus fertilizer market is completed to undertake the market demand in summer, with strong support; The price of sulfur rose steadily, and the maintenance volume of refineries in some areas decreased, which formed a favorable support for the price; The price of synthetic ammonia increased in a small range. Due to the tight supply of raw materials in the market, the price of monoammonium phosphate may still have room to rise.
Product prices rose and fell with each other: the products with the highest price increase include: phosphate rock (Guizhou 30% truck sector tax) (14.81%), DMF (12.55%), liquid caustic soda (32% ion-exchange membrane, North China) (10.45%), acrylic acid (8.13%) and MTBE (6.31%).
Products with the highest price decline include glyphosate (- 11.36%), slurry (- 11.30%), liquefied gas (FOB Southeast Asia) (- 7.95%), methyl methacrylate (MMA) (- 6.38%), acetic anhydride (- 5.06%).
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
