Overview of sector fund positions: ranking still ranks first in the industry, with a decline month on month. 2022 Fund Quarterly Report, the proportion of heavy food and beverage continued to decline, the proportion of positions was 13.45%, the ratio fell by 1.32pct, of which sub sector view, mainly Baijiu heavy sector ratio decreased, Baijiu heavy sector ratio -1.12pct to 11.25%. In 2022q1, the over allocation range of food and beverage sector still decreased month on month, from 7.35% to 6.75%. In terms of horizontal comparison, the proportion of heavy positions in the sector continues the downward trend in the year, but it still ranks first. The proportion of heavy positions is 0.35pct higher than that in the second electronic sector.
Baijiu sector: Moutai is more stable, most of the rest of the liquor companies are reduced. 2022Q1 heavy Baijiu ratio continued 2021Q4 decline, but the overall heavy position is still at a high level, the proportion of super matching from 7.16% of 2021Q4 dropped to 6.58% of 0.58pct to 2022Q1. On the specific target, the top 10 Baijiu liquor accounts for 8 seats, namely, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , of which Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) takes the place of Huarun 10. On the specific target, high-end liquor Baijiu, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) live in the top three of the fund’s heavily loaded stocks, with a slight increase in positions than Moutai, while the remaining two have declined significantly, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) +0.11pct to 4.99%, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) -0.62pct to 1.69%, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ring to -0.31pct to 1.61%; In the second high-end Baijiu, the proportion of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) heavy warehouse is -0.05pct to 1.19%, and the proportion of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) heavy warehouse remains unchanged, still 0.78%, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) -0.17pct to 0.26%, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) -0.10pct to 0.25%, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) to +0.01pct 0.14%, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) to 0.06%.
Popular products: beer distribution is reduced, and other categories remain stable. In 2022q1, the proportion of popular products and the proportion of heavy fund positions decreased significantly. The proportion of heavy fund positions was -0.21ct month on month, continuing the downward trend in 2021q4 month on month. The market value of popular products accounted for -0.19pct to 2.03% of the value of a stock market month on month. In terms of molecular sector, the heavy positions of beer, dairy products, seasoning and fermented products and food comprehensive funds were 0.53%, 1.01%, 0.16% and 0.35% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.16pct, + 0.04pct, + 0.00pct and + 0.02pct respectively. Specifically, food and beverage accounts for two of the top 10 positions in the popular goods sector, namely Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , among which Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ranks one place higher than 2021q4 Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) heavy warehouse proportion increased from + 0.06pct to 0.96% month on month, and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) heavy warehouse proportion decreased from -0.02pct month on month, and the heavy warehouse proportion was 0.19%.
Analysis of heavy position stocks: the number of sector seats remained unchanged month on month, and the ranking of heavy positions in Maotai increased steadily. Among the top 20 positions held by Q4 fund, the targets of heavy positions in food and beverage stocks remain at 5 seats, namely Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) still ranked first among the five seats, and the proportion of heavy positions increased month on month, from + 0.11pct to 4.99% compared with 2021q4 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ranking dropped from No. 3 to No. 6, and the proportion of heavy positions increased from -0.62pct to 1.69% month on month Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ranking dropped from No. 5 to No. 7, and the proportion of heavy positions increased from -0.31pct to 1.61% month on month Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ranking rose 2 places to 10th place compared with 2021q4, and the proportion of heavy positions decreased by 0.15pct to 1.19% month on month Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) heavy positions increased slightly month on month, and the ranking rose by 3 places.
Investment suggestion: for Baijiu sector, we suggest that we should pay close attention to the volume and price of the liquor in the short term. On the investment target, we first recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , and pay attention to the operational inflection point of real estate wine. For the mass products sector, the demand for people’s livelihood products is guaranteed. It is expected that with the gradual easing of the epidemic, people’s livelihood products will have a demand for replenishment, driving the recovery of subsequent revenue and performance. We’re optimistic about the volume price recovery in the popular goods industry, and we’re optimistic about the volume price recovery in the volume price recovery in the popular goods industry. We’re looking at the short term to see what the epidemic benefits target, and the medium term to see the medium term to see the main line of food and beverage recovery. Core recommendations include Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , 03317 \ \, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , etc.
Risk tip: the pace of economic recovery needs to be observed; The local repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
