Q1 land transactions in 100 cities are still at an all-time low; In March, 8 cities opened the first round of centralized local auction, with a turnover of more than 100 billion
In March, 100.91 million square meters of land were sold in Baicheng, a year-on-year increase of – 42.5% in a single month; The total transaction price was 185.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 41.1% in a single month. In March, the budgeted income of local government funds was 443.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, of which the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 403.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8%. According to Kerui’s statistics, in March, the new land value (land acquisition amount) of top 50 real estate enterprises totaled 61.4 billion yuan, down 67% year-on-year and 16.6% month on month; The total new land construction area of the top 50 real estate enterprises was 5.88 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 81.4% and a month on month increase of 16.6%.
According to the statistics of Kerui and the middle finger: in March, a total of 8 cities opened the first round of local auction; (excluding Shanghai data of suspension of land auction) 146 residential plots were supplied; Among them, there were 123 transactions, 9.944 million square meters of construction area, a total transaction price of 102.65 billion yuan, the corresponding average transaction floor price of 103227 yuan / square meter, and the average transaction premium rate was about 4.1%. As of April 22, 11 cities (including Shanghai data) had opened the first round of local auction, supplying 256 residential plots in total; Among them, there were 190 transactions, 15.305 million square meters of construction area, with a total transaction price of 2007.6 billion yuan, corresponding to the average transaction floor price of 131175 yuan / square meter, and the average transaction premium rate was about 3.6%.
In terms of energy levels, land transactions continued to differentiate, and the first round of centralized supply of land to underground first tier cities shrank in volume and increased in price
According to the urban energy level, the transaction and construction areas of the first, second and third and fourth lines of the land in 100 cities in March were 3.11 million square meters, 34.61 million square meters and 63.19 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 34.8%, – 36.9% and – 45.5% (February was – 32.5%, – 37.8% and – 22.3% respectively). The total transaction price was 22.2 billion yuan, 103.3 billion yuan and 59.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 127.4%, – 12.2% and – 68.1% respectively. The average price of the transaction order is RMB / month, + 44.44%, + 714.5% / month, respectively.
Among them, according to the urban energy level, the transaction and construction areas of the first, second and third and fourth lines (residential) in March were 210000 square meters, 10.77 million square meters and 11.4 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 27.1%, – 41.6% and – 71.2% respectively. The total transaction price was 4.4 billion yuan, 93.2 billion yuan and 37.1 billion yuan respectively, with a single month year-on-year increase of + 22.2%, + 0.7% and – 75.6% respectively. The average transaction price was 21261 yuan / m2, 8656 yuan / m2 and 3252 yuan / m2 respectively, with a single month year-on-year increase of + 67.6%, + 72.4% and – 15.2% respectively. In terms of land transaction premium rate, the first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier (residential) in March were 0.0%, 4.6% and 3.3% respectively.
Investment suggestions: 1) since the beginning of the year, many parties have released the signal of capital area pole, the five-year LPR has been reduced by 5bp, the affordable housing loans have not been included in the concentration management, the new measures for the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been structurally corrected, and major banks have provided M & A financing support“ α The “risk” restoration has entered the implementation stage, and the liquidity of the real estate industry continues to ease. 2) While the liquidity is easing, the prudent management of real estate finance and the trend of “deleveraging” will continue to deepen, and some early overly radical real estate enterprises“ α “Risk” may still be exposed, but China’s real estate market“ β The overall trend of “coefficient” health and stability will not change. 3) On February 24, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed to “meet the reasonable demand for improved house purchase”. On March 5, the government work report of the national two sessions made it clear that “support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing demand of house buyers”. We believe that the follow-up improvement of real estate credit support is expected to be improved, and the issuance of real estate bonds is expected to be large. On March 16, the meeting of the financial stability Committee of the State Council proposed that real estate enterprises should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for transformation to a new development model. We believe that the subsequent public offering of REITs in the real estate industry is expected to break the ice, and the first batch of most likely basic assets include affordable rental housing, commercial real estate, etc. 4) Recently, the market pays more attention to the real estate sector and is optimistic about the long-term performance of high-quality leading real estate enterprises. It recommends China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprises, China Jinmao, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development, China overseas Hongyang group, China Resources Land, Longhu group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring and other factors may lead to the industry’s development less than expected, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; Recently, real estate enterprises have ushered in a debt repayment peak, and the debt default risk of low credit real estate enterprises has increased.
