Key investment points
Investment suggestion: callback in the off-season and actively layout. The epidemic situation is superimposed in the off-season, and the price of thermal coal is under pressure in the short term, but the overall pattern of coal supply and demand is still tight, and the prosperity of the industry remains high. Coal enterprises have successively released annual reports and forecasts of the first quarter report. The performance growth rate is generally fast, and most of them have exceeded expectations; Leading companies paid a high proportion of dividends, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) . Core logic: driven by the production capacity cycle, the high outlook of the coal industry continues. The supply side reform launched in 2016 resolved excess capacity, exceeded the target, and the supply capacity decreased more than expected. The national development and Reform Commission calls for accelerating the development and expansion of new driving forces, cultivating and developing high-quality and advanced production capacity, but it is far from being thirsty. Judging from the construction period of 3-5 years, the overall scale of coal production capacity that can be truly released in the future is relatively limited. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the growth of the national economy, the energy demand of the whole society is expected to maintain a growth trend, the bottom-up guarantee role of coal in the energy system may be more prominent, the absolute consumption of coal will increase steadily, and the coal industry is still in a high boom development stage.
Points beyond expectations: 1) difficulty in increasing production and ensuring supply exceeds expectations: the space for capacity re combing and re mining in 2022 is limited, and it is difficult to increase another 300 million tons of capacity. On March 18, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on establishing a special class to promote the work related to increasing coal production and ensuring supply, indicating that the urgency and difficulty of increasing production and ensuring supply may be more severe than expected. 2) Demand growth toughness exceeds expectations: the downstream data of Q1 coal in 2022 seems to perform poorly, but considering the high growth in the same period last year, the actual performance this year is OK, and the demand growth toughness is still very strong. With the continuous development of the national "steady growth" measures, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased steadily, which is expected to drive the higher than expected growth of downstream coal demand. 3) When large factories raise the price of purchased coal, the price limit space is opened, which is higher than expected: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) 2022 from January 15 to February 11, the price of purchased 5500 kcal of coal is not less than 900 yuan, indicating that "the pit mouth is not more than 700 yuan / ton and the port is not more than 900 yuan / ton". The impact of the price limit order is weakened, and the space for the rise of spot price is opened. Under the situation of tight supply and demand, it is expected that the coal price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. 4) The Russian Ukrainian crisis catalyzed the global energy crisis, and overseas coal prices soared higher than expected: the spot price index of the three major international power coal rose sharply, superimposed with the uncertain prospect of the liberalization of imported coal from Australia and the export obstruction caused by the need for Indonesian coal mines to fulfill DMO, the supplementary effect of imported coal on the supply of China's market was limited, and the coal import situation was tight. High overseas coal prices and the transfer of imports to domestic trade may exacerbate the tension in coastal coal supply.
Coal price: the price of power coal is under pressure, and the price of coking coal is stable, medium and strong.
In terms of thermal coal, port prices rebounded this week and pit mouth prices fell slightly. On the supply side, under the policy and epidemic control, the transportation capacity of some mining areas is limited, the inventory pressure rises, and the pit mouth is dominated by supply guarantee and chemical procurement; In terms of the port, the Daqin line was reopened, but as it was close to may, the policy was inconsistent with the high price and the transaction was difficult. On the demand side, the traditional off-season superimposes the impact of the epidemic, the daily consumption of the power plant remains low, and the overall demand is weak and has not been fully released. In the follow-up, we will continue to pay attention to the downstream demand and the impact of the epidemic.
In terms of coking coal and coke, the price is stable, medium and strong. On the supply side, the epidemic situation in Shanxi has gradually improved this week, the automobile transportation in the province has gradually recovered, and individual coke enterprises have increased production. However, due to the shutdown of some coal mines in Xiangning, Linfen due to accidents, the overall supply has been tightened; In terms of importing Mongolian coal, on the 4th of this week, Ganqi Maodu port cleared 280 vehicles per day, with an increase of 64 vehicles per week, and the short-term freight and Mongolian coal prices continued to rise; On the demand side, the epidemic situation has been repeated all over the country recently, the resistance of coal transportation is still large, the arrival of raw coal from coke enterprises is poor, and many factories passively reduce the storage. In terms of downstream steel mills, with the opening of all parts of Tangshan and the issuance of passes by the governments of Shanxi, Hebei and other places, the arrival of goods generally increased, but the increase of storage was slow and the procurement enthusiasm was still high. The sixth round of rising of coke enterprises has been implemented, and the demand continues to be strong, or support the follow-up rising space.
High frequency data tracking
The port price of thermal coal was flat; Coking coal port and pit mouth were flat. As of April 20, the comprehensive average price index: Bohai Rim thermal coal (q5500k) closed at 736.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; As of April 22, the comprehensive trading price: cctd Qinhuangdao thermal coal (q5500) closed at 786.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; As of April 22, the closing price of Shanxi production of Qinhuangdao port power end coal (q5500) was 1173.0 yuan / ton, up 38.0 yuan / ton (+ 3.3%) on a weekly basis; As of April 22, the price of Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Indonesian coal (q5500) warehouse has increased by 1273.0 yuan / ton, up 47.0 yuan / ton (+ 3.8%) on a weekly basis Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal (q5500) warehouse raised the price by 1278.0 yuan / ton, up 47.0 yuan / ton (+ 3.8%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of April 22, the price (including tax) of the main coking coal warehouse produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port increased by 3350.0 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Shanxi's main coking coal closing price (tax included) was 3789.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; As of April 22, the average price of Shanxi main coking coal was 2892.0 yuan / ton, up 179.0 yuan / ton (+ 6.6%) on a weekly basis; As of April 22, the sector price of Shanxi Luliang 1 / 3 coke car was 2550.0 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis.
Power coal port inventory fell and terminal inventory rose, while coking coal port inventory fell and terminal inventory fell. As of April 21, the total storage of power coal in the eight coastal provinces was 29.321 million tons, with a weekly increase of 566000 tons (+ 2.0%). As of April 22, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.4 million tons, down 400000 tons (- 8.3%) on a weekly basis. In terms of coking coal, as of April 22, the coking coal storage of the six major ports had 1.67 million tons, down 370000 tons (- 18.1%) on a weekly basis; As of April 18, the total inventory of coking coal in China's coking plants was 3.038 million tons, down 126000 tons (- 4.0%) on a weekly basis.
The railway arrival volume of Qinhuangdao port increased and the port throughput decreased; Coal shipping charges rose. As of April 22, the arrival volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 8010.0 vehicles, an increase of 4335.0 vehicles (+ 118.0%) over the previous week; The port throughput of Qinhuangdao port was 543000 tons, with a decrease of 6000 tons (- 1.1%) on a weekly basis. As of April 22, the ocfi of Qinhuangdao Shanghai (4 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight index was 24.5 yuan / ton, up 0.5 yuan / ton (+ 2.1%) on a weekly basis; Qinhuangdao Guangzhou (5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 DWT) Maritime coal freight rate index ocfi44 0 yuan / ton, up 6.0 yuan / ton (+ 15.8%) on a weekly basis.
Downstream performance: the price of coke rises, the price of steel rises, the operating rate of blast furnace falls, the price of methanol is flat, and the price of cement falls. As of April 22, the closing price of Rizhao Port Co.Ltd(600017) quasi primary metallurgical coke (including tax) was 4010.0 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 200.0 yuan / ton (+ 5.2%). The price of deformed steel bar in Shanghai (hrb40020mm) was 5090.0 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 10.0 yuan / ton (+ 0.2%); The national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 79.8%, with a decrease of 0.3% (- 0.4%) on a weekly basis.; Methanol price index was 2820.0, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The national cement price index was 170.8, down 0.8 (- 0.4%) on a weekly basis.
Risk warning: policy price limit risk; Coal import volume; The macro economy has fallen sharply.
