Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.87%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.19%, the SW nonferrous index fell 8.08%, Comex gold fell 2.46% and silver fell 6.80%. The prices of LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin, the main industrial metals, changed by – 1.65%, – 2.55%, – 0.82%, – 2.49%, 0.02% and – 2.71% month on month respectively; Metal inventory LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by – 3.62%, 24.49%, – 10.68%, – 0.25%, 0.11% and 7.88% month on month respectively. Industrial metals: the impact of the epidemic has been gradually alleviated, the reduction of reserve requirements has boosted demand, and the price of industrial metals is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Core view: RRR reduction will boost demand, and the impact of the epidemic on transportation will be alleviated. In terms of copper, the impact of the epidemic on transportation has been alleviated. China’s social Treasury has decreased by 12000 tons month on month. The demand is expected to be boosted by monetary easing. The interference of community activities in Chile and Peru on the supply side of the mine has intensified, superimposed with high inflation under the European energy crisis, supporting copper prices. In terms of aluminum, the interference of the epidemic was alleviated, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 42000 tons higher than that of last Thursday. Supply side: China’s resumption of production is still in progress, it takes time to start the tank, and the short-term new increment is limited; On the demand side, affected by the insufficient supply of raw materials in Shanghai, the downstream construction declined slightly, and attention was paid to the downstream replenishment demand after the epidemic situation was alleviated. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) . Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China Nonferrous metals mining.
Energy metals: the impact of the epidemic is still ongoing, but the policy actively promotes the resumption of production of automobile enterprises. The price of lithium and cobalt is under short-term pressure, and the demand may improve in May. Core view: the epidemic has impacted demand, but car companies are resuming production one after another, and the marginal impact of the epidemic has weakened. In terms of lithium, the supply side: the increment of Salt Lake project continues. On the demand side, the epidemic began to impact the industrial chain in April, suppressing downstream demand, superimposing the resumption of production in China’s salt lakes and the correction of lithium prices. In terms of cobalt, downstream procurement continued to be weak, a large number of intermediate products came to the post, and China’s cobalt salt prices fell as a whole. In terms of nickel, the output of high matte nickel is still not large, and the supply of nickel sulfate continues to be tight, which supports the price. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and high inflation is difficult to ease. Gold prices are expected to rise after short-term adjustment.
Core view: Fed officials have made hawkish speeches one after another to promote the strong rise of US bond yields and the US dollar in the short term. However, the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has driven risk aversion and inflation is difficult to ease. It is expected that gold prices will continue to rise in the future. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to high energy commodity prices, and the fragile supply chain is even worse. After the largest rise in 12 years recorded by the US inflation data in March, the CPI of the eurozone also increased by 7.4% year-on-year in March, reaching a new record high. It is expected that the global high inflation will continue. Although the Fed takes tough measures, there may still be room for gold prices to rise under the pressure of high inflation. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, supply is released more than expected, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk.
