Core view
The implementation of individual pension accounts and the gradual improvement of the three pillar old-age security system. The general office of the State Council issued the opinions on promoting the development of individual pension on April 21, which clearly implements the account based individual pension system, with an annual payment ceiling of 12000 yuan. The account funds can buy bank financial management, savings deposits, commercial endowment insurance, public funds and other products, which can be received when retiring and enjoy certain tax preferential policies. We believe that the first pillar of the three pillar old-age security system at this stage has a wide coverage, but the substitution rate is low and the pressure on sustainability is increasing; The second pillar has low participation and limited development space. In contrast, the third pillar has just started. The early attempt of tax extension endowment insurance has weak tax superiority, and the overall performance has not reached expectations. In recent years, the exclusive commercial endowment insurance, endowment financial products and the establishment of national endowment insurance companies have enriched and improved the third pillar endowment security system in multiple dimensions, alleviating the pressure on the first and second pillars and deepening the deeper endowment security of the whole people.
The individual pension system brings significant incremental long-term funds, which is an important exploration of China’s buyer investment consulting model. Similar to the American individual retirement savings account (IRS), the opening of the account system, the investment scope far exceeds the fund investment adviser, the individual has the right of choice, and the superposition of its tax preferential policies make the individual pension system highly competitive and attractive, and provide “vitality” and “growth soil” for its long-term development. Considering that the individual pension belongs to the scope of supplementary pension, the characteristics of individual payment, complete accumulation and tax preferential effect make it more suitable for middle and high-income groups and. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2019, the number of people with a monthly income of 5 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) 00 yuan and more than 10000 yuan in China were 63.28 million and 8.54 million respectively. According to our calculation, personal pension is expected to bring an annual capital accumulation of 5 billion yuan and 216 billion yuan respectively during the pilot period and the national implementation stage. It is not difficult to see that personal pension is another big buyer investment advisory model exploration after fund investment advisory, focusing on the head securities companies, funds and other wealth management institutions with strong investment research and investment advisory ability.
The third draft of the futures and derivatives law was submitted for review, and the derivatives legislation promoted the long-term development of the industry. This week, the third review draft of the futures and derivatives law was submitted to the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress for deliberation. The main changes include: 1) the trading rules formulated by the places where derivatives trading is organized are reported to the relevant competent departments for “Filing” and revised to “approval”. 2) Strengthen institutional supervision and clarify the relevant provisions on the listing and registration of financial institutions. 3) We have improved the system of derivatives transaction report base and made clear the relevant rules for the supervision and administration institutions to establish derivatives transaction report base. 4) Improve the provisions of the contract concept. 5) Improve the management rules of overseas institutions in domestic marketing activities. The third review raised the supervision of futures and derivatives trading market to a new level, clarified the rights and obligations of all parties in the market, and laid a legal foundation for market trading. The promotion of derivatives legislation process has laid a legal foundation for the development of China’s derivatives market and product system innovation. It is optimistic about securities companies and futures companies with extensive layout and strong strength in derivatives business.
Investment proposal and investment object
In terms of securities companies, favorable capital market policies and institutional innovation are still the main theme of the current sector, maintaining a positive rating. In the difficult times of the market, we should stick to the clear and clear leader of undervalued value, and still advocate the main line of derivatives. We recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , overweight), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ( Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , overweight). We suggest paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, Unrated).
In terms of diversified finance, A-Shares recommend Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) ( Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , buy) as the leader of high-altitude operation platform renter, and it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) ( Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , not rated); Hong Kong stocks recommend Far East Hongxin, the leading financial leasing company (03360, buy); In terms of China concept stocks, although the reversal of the market has not yet come, the policy expectation has improved significantly. Under the repeated market, we can bargain hunting and build positions to gain short-term flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to futu Holdings (futu. O, buy) and tiger securities (TIGR. O, buy).
In terms of insurance, the transformation of life insurance liabilities is still advancing, and the decline of team size and the adjustment of product structure lead to the corresponding increase of production capacity. However, we should continue to pay attention to the production capacity climbing under the stable scale and the release of demand after the activation of security awareness; The logic of both quantity and quality of auto insurance is solid, the growth momentum of non auto insurance is strong and the space is broad, and the opportunity of property insurance allocation is reiterated; There is not much pessimistic expectation on the investment side. Maintain the positive rating of the industry, and follow-up suggestions focus on China Property Insurance (02328, not rated), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ( Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , buy), AIA (01299, not rated).
Risk tips
The suppression of systemic risk on the performance and valuation of securities business; Stricter supervision than expected;
The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Related policy risks in diversified financial field.
