Core view
Market review: throughout the week, the CSI 300 index fell 4.19%, the gem index fell 6.66%, and the textile and garment industry index rose 4.93%, which was stronger than the CSI 300 and the gem index. Among them, the textile manufacturing sector rose 4.14%, and the brand clothing sector rose 5.62%. In terms of individual stocks, Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) and bosden, which we cover, have achieved positive returns.
Overseas highlights: (1) Procter & Gamble P & G exceeded expectations in the third quarter. (2) L’or é al has confidence in China. (3) Swiss watch rebounded strongly in February.
Important information of industry and company: (1) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) : in 2021, the operating revenue reached 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 580 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%; 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 1.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.2% (2) Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) : the operating revenue in 2021 was 8.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 67.5%. (3) Li Ning: the company announced the results of the first quarter of 2022. As of March 31, 2022, the retail flow of Li Ning point of sale (excluding Li Ning young) in the whole platform has increased by 20% – 30% year-on-year. (4) 4 / 9 ~ 4 / 15 investment and financing of consumer industry: A. Haipu Nuo, a skin care brand of Dermatology grade, has completed a round of pre-A financing of nearly 10 million yuan; B light sports lifestyle brand Jiaoma completed ten million yuan Angel round financing; C. Guochao accessories brand abyb charming completed a round of financing of tens of millions of yuan.
Suggested sector combination this week: Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Anta sports, Li Ning and Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) . Last week’s combined performance: Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) 1%, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) -2%, Anta Sports 0%, Li Ning – 3% and Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) 17%.
Investment proposal and investment object
On Monday, the Bureau of statistics disclosed the social zero data for the first quarter. In the first quarter, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the retail sales of consumer goods other than cars increased by 3.6%, of which the social zero decreased by 3.5% in March. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth rate decreased significantly compared with the previous February. In the first quarter, the online retail of physical goods increased by 8.8% year-on-year, including 0.9% for wear goods. From the perspective of structure, in March, it was still relatively stronger in the partial essential consumer goods such as grain, oil, food and beverage. Among the optional consumer goods we covered, gold, silver and jewelry decreased by 17.9% year-on-year in March (the proportion offline was high and more vulnerable to the epidemic), and cosmetics, clothing, shoes and hats decreased by 6.3% and 12.7% year-on-year. Under the impact of the epidemic, it is expected that the performance of most brand clothing companies in the first quarter will be under pressure. Entering the second quarter, the retail pressure in April will be further greater than that in March. However, if the epidemic in China can be effectively controlled, terminal consumption is expected to usher in a significant rebound from May to June, and the final progress still depends on the development of the current epidemic. The textile and clothing sector has been very active in the sluggish market environment recently. On the one hand, we believe that many manufacturing leading export orders and performance have continued the good trend since last year. Some subdivided leaders in the recent annual report have also given relatively high guidance for 22 years, such as Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) and so on; On the other hand, under the weak situation, small market value stocks are also easy to become the target of hot money, while many textile stock markets are relatively small, and the previous market attention is not high, which is easy to become the target of hot money. In the medium and short term, we believe that textile manufacturing leaders with good fundamentals (relatively stable external demand + expectation of RMB devaluation) will still have obvious excess returns. In the long run, we continue to be optimistic about the high prosperity of sportswear and big beauty (cosmetics and medical beauty). Among them, the sportswear sector recommends Li Ning (02331, buy), Anta sports (02020, buy), Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) ( Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , buy) and Shenzhou International (02313, buy). It is suggested to pay attention to Tebu International (01368, buy). The big beauty sector is optimistic about Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) ( Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , buy) in the medium and long term Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) ( Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , buy) and Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) ( Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , overweight), it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) ( Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , overweight), Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) ( Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Unrated). The traditional clothing sector recommends Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) ( Zhejiang Weixing Industrial Development Co.Ltd(002003) , buy), Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) ( Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) , buy), Bosideng (03998, buy), Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) ( Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , buy), Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) ( Luolai Lifestyle Technology Co.Ltd(002293) , overweight), etc. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ( Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , not rated).
Risk tips
The repeated global epidemic, the pressure of economic slowdown on China’s retail terminals, trade friction, inflation and RMB exchange rate fluctuations.
