The National Bureau of statistics officially released the retail data of social consumer goods from January to March 2022 on April 18.
From January to March 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 108659 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 9792 billion yuan, an increase of 3.6%. Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to March actually increased by 1.3% year-on-year.
In March 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3423.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 3056 billion yuan, down 3.0%.
The impact of the epidemic is weak, and the recovery of consumption is blocked. Since March, the epidemic has occurred frequently in China, and prevention and control measures have been carried out everywhere, which has had a significant negative impact on the overall consumption environment and consumption confidence. In March 2022, the social zero decreased by 3.5% year-on-year and the growth rate decreased by 10.2pct month on month. In terms of regions, the impact of urban and rural areas is close: in March, the total retail sales of urban consumer goods were – 3.6% (qoq-10.3pct) year-on-year and – 3.3% (qoq-10.4pct) year-on-year in rural areas. In terms of classification, commodities were relatively less affected, and catering suffered significant setbacks: in March, the total retail sales of commodities were – 2.1% (qoq-8.6pct) year-on-year, of which the total retail sales of commodities of units above the quota were – 0.4% year-on-year; Total catering retail sales were – 16.4% (qoq-25.3pct) year-on-year, of which the total catering retail sales of units above designated size were – 15.6% year-on-year. Since April, the situation of epidemic prevention and control has remained grim, and it is expected that the recovery trend of consumption will continue to be blocked in the short term.
The differentiation between mandatory and optional consumption is significant, and the epidemic has a great impact on optional consumption. The growth rate of compulsory consumption was relatively stable. In March, it was – 0.8% for daily necessities, 12.6% for beverages, 12.5% for grain, oil and food, 7.2% for tobacco and alcohol, and 11.9% for drugs. Except for daily necessities, the growth rate of other categories continued to increase year-on-year, including beverages, grain, oil and food, and drugs. Optional consumption was greatly dampened. In March, it was – 12.7% for clothing, 6.3% for cosmetics, 17.5% for jewelry, 4.3% for household appliances, 9.8% for cultural office, 8.8% for furniture, 3.1% for communication, 10.5% for petroleum products, 7.5% for automobiles, and 0.4% for construction and decoration materials respectively. Six of the 10 sub categories showed negative growth, and the growth rate of all categories decreased in varying degrees month on month. Among them, the growth rate of clothing, cosmetics, jewelry and household appliances decreased by 17.5pct, 13.3pct, respectively 37.4 PCT and 17.0 PCT were significantly affected by the epidemic.
The overall performance of consumption affected by online growth and logistics blocked under epidemic control. From January to March, the cumulative retail sales of online food, clothing and use goods increased by 13.5%, 0.9% and 10.6% year-on-year. From January to March, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.8%, accounting for 23.2% (22.0% from January to February). According to our calculation, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 2.9% (qoq-9.4pct) in March, with a month on month decline slightly better than the overall consumption level. According to the express data disclosed by the State Post Office, the number of express tickets in March decreased by – 3.1% (Mom – 22.8pct), corresponding to the year-on-year increase of 6.0% (mom + 11.0pct) of e-commerce ASP in March, which is in line with the characteristics of consumer behavior during the epidemic period.
The operation of some core areas of e-commerce has been gradually improved, and attention has been paid to the recovery process of e-commerce nodes from May to June. Take Shanghai as an example. According to the data disclosed by jd.com, as of April 15, the number of delivery orders completed by jd.com Shanghai increased by 67% compared with the previous day, returning to 43% of the average daily volume before the epidemic (only 20% a week ago). With the reinforcements mobilized by jd.com across the country in place, it is expected to return to 60% before the epidemic on the 17th and 80% in a week. According to the official data released by Shanghai, as of April 16, 42 non epidemic related warehouses of Shanghai e-commerce platforms have resumed business, with an opening rate of 95.5%; The pre opening rate was 772.9%, and the pre opening rate was 772%. At present, there are more than 18000 takeout riders on duty, and the daily delivery order is about 1.8 million. The development of e-commerce business in Shanghai has entered a recovery period. Since Q1 and Q2 are the traditional off-season of e-commerce at the beginning of the year, they have relatively little impact on the annual performance. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the recovery process of the overall operation of node e-commerce from May to June.
Investment proposal and investment object
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Risk tips
Epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Consumption recovery is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies
