Core portfolio of core shares: combination of core combination of core shares: a combination of core combination of core combinations: combinationof a combination of core shares: Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) \ \, Beijing Sdl Technology Co.Ltd(002658) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , etc.
Special research this week: 2022q1 GDP was + 1.3% month on month, down from 1.5% of Q4 in 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, and + 0.8pcts compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Overall, the slowdown of GDP economic momentum in the first quarter reflects the comprehensive role of the resurgence of internal epidemic and external geopolitical conflicts. The difficulty of achieving the economic growth target of 5.5% has increased, and the growth policy is expected to be further overweight and strengthen counter cyclical regulation to ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range in the second quarter. The margin of real estate policy is relaxed. Under the guidance of urban construction policies, local governments have successively issued house purchase support policies. At present, the growth rate of new construction area is still negative, and the release of demand has been delayed. Meanwhile, in the first quarter, the national development and Reform Commission has approved 11 infrastructure projects, with a total investment of 287.9 billion yuan, accounting for 49% of the total amount of last year, setting the second highest value in the same period since 2016, second only to 357.8 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2019. Among the new 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds this year, the amount for project construction has been issued. Special debts related to infrastructure construction account for more than 60%. Infrastructure investment demand is expected to exceed expectations in the second quarter and usher in substantial improvement in the third quarter. The sales volume of excavators is still negative year-on-year. CME estimates that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) will be about 26500 in April 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of about – 43%. The decline is slightly improved compared with the previous month, waiting for the inflection point of the industry The share prices of leading enterprises in Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) and other industries have been significantly adjusted, and PE is in the low quantile, which fully reflects the pessimistic expectation. We believe that although the inflection point of the downward trend of the industry has not yet appeared, with the continuous increase of steady growth, there is still a poor expectation of marginal improvement in the generally pessimistic situation of construction machinery, so it is reasonable to pay attention to the follow-up space of industry leaders.
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment has a resonance in the global production capacity cycle. It is expected that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, and the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly. At the same time, the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials is expected to stimulate downstream demand, and we are optimistic about the leaders of battery chips and module equipment;
For power exchange, the operation space of power exchange station is expected to reach 135755 billion yuan in 2025. The operation of power exchange station is the link with the largest market space in the field of power exchange, and it is optimistic about the operation enterprises of power exchange station;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary foundation for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable to the implementation. Power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, the strong is always strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
