This week, the average price of liquid air separation gas decreased by 31% year-on-year; The price of rare gas is stable as a whole
1) affected by the epidemic, the price of industrial gas continued to be low this week. In the fourth week of April, the retail gas price decreased by 31% year-on-year, and the decline was expanded (last week's year-on-year - 28%). The unit price of liquid oxygen was 501 yuan / ton, down 43%; The unit price of liquid nitrogen was 550 yuan / ton, down 9%; The unit price of liquid argon was 924 yuan / ton, down 35%.
2) the price of rare gases remained stable and high as a whole. On April 23, 2022, the ex factory price of krypton gas was 49000 yuan / m3, a year-on-year increase of 356%, an increase of 74% over the beginning of the year, and the ex factory price of xenon gas was 475000 yuan / m3, a year-on-year increase of 288%, an increase of 65% over the beginning of the year.
3) the price of carbon dioxide has shown a steady upward trend since March 2022. On April 23, the average price of carbon dioxide in the past seven days was 342 yuan / ton, up 0.18% month on month and down 12.13% year-on-year.
Industry trends:
1) Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) released the first quarterly report of 2022. Benefiting from the simultaneous rise in the volume and price of gas and electronic special gas businesses, the net profit attributable to the parent company during the period was 56 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 257%.
2) Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) signed the second electronic bulk gas supply contract after Qingdao project. The customer is Jiaxing star Microelectronics Co., Ltd., and the construction content includes 4000m3 / h pure nitrogen equipment and its supporting facilities.
3) Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.Ltd(002971) plans to invest in the construction of Yichang electronic special gas and functional material industrial park. The first phase is planned to invest 1.8 billion yuan. The project mainly adopts advanced synthesis, purification and purification technology to produce electronic special gases such as hexafluorobutadiene and functional silane, and supporting the construction of relevant public works and auxiliary facilities.
Continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the industrial gas industry, and the market value of overseas comparable companies is nearly trillion yuan
1) in 2020, the global industrial gas market will reach 135 billion US dollars, with an increase of 8% (gas online). China's industrial gas market will be nearly 200 billion yuan in 2021, and the CAGR will be about 8% from 2019 to 2021, which is expected to produce a large market capitalization company.
2) the corresponding market value of Linde, Air Liquide and air chemical products of overseas comparable companies is about 100 billion yuan, 500 billion yuan and 400 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to an average PE of about 26 times in 2022.
3) the concentration of China's air separation gas market is relatively low, Cr4 is about 50%, while overseas is 70%. At the same time, the Chinese share of multinational companies is about 40-50%, and the market share of new projects signed by local enterprises has increased significantly in recent years.
4) the share of independent brands in the special gas market is only 10%, and the domestic substitution trend is obvious and has great potential.
Investment suggestions:
Focus on the leader of industrial gas industry Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , carbon dioxide leader / electronic special gas Nova Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) , and focus on electronic special gas companies such as Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) .
Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) : optimistic about the continuous improvement of the market share of industrial gas business, expanding gas and refining equipment! The 2021 equity incentive plan was launched, and the issuance of convertible bonds was promoted in an orderly manner to upgrade to an industrial gas leader.
1) the growth rate and sustainability of gas business are expected to exceed market expectations. In 2021, the scale of newly signed gas reached 640000 m3, with a year-on-year growth rate of 129%. We expect that the production and sales volume of the company's on-site gas production business is expected to reach 3 million m3 in 2025, the revenue will reach 15 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate of revenue will reach 30%.
2) the market expectation of equipment business is too pessimistic, and the periodicity is expected to be greatly weakened. The company's equipment in hand, full orders, carbon neutralization and other policies will affect the production rhythm of downstream industries, but the long-term demand is still increasing.
Hunan Kaimeite Gases Co.Ltd(002549) : China's food grade carbon dioxide leader and electronic specialty gas will become a new growth pole. China's electronic specialty gas market will be 15 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of about 20%, mainly used in integrated circuits (accounting for 70%) and other fields. The localization rate of China's electronic specialty gas is about 15%, and there is a wide space for domestic substitution. The company started with the rare gas gold track, and the electronic special gas phase II (syngas) project has been settled in Chenzhou, Hunan.
Risk tips: 1) the demand of downstream industries is lower than expected; 2) Risk of large fluctuations in retail gas prices.
