Key investment points
The demand for lithium battery continues to expand, and the total growth of negative electrode is highly uncertain
Driven by the demand for downstream lithium batteries, the global demand for lithium battery cathode materials is expected to reach 1.59 million tons in 2024, 46% higher than the CAGR in the three years of 2021. Among them, power battery is an important growth pole of lithium battery demand. It is estimated that the global demand for power cathode materials will reach 1.36 million tons in 2024, 54% compared with CAGR in 2021; The traditional 3C digital market has entered a mature stage, and the future incremental demand for digital batteries mainly comes from smart home devices and wearable devices; Energy storage is the blue ocean field of lithium batteries, which is expected to bring a huge market for lithium battery demand.
China's leading enterprises have accelerated global supply, and the industry pattern has evolved to "four major and small"
In terms of resources, China has the largest amount of graphite in the world and is rich in available resources; In terms of technology, China's leading enterprises continue to cultivate deeply and gradually realize import substitution. In 2021, the global output of cathode materials was 882700 tons, and the output of China was 815900 tons, accounting for 92%. Considering the characteristics of high energy consumption and technology intensive production of negative electrode materials, the pace of overseas production expansion is significantly slower than that in China. It is expected that the market share of Chinese enterprises will continue to rise in the future. Thanks to the barriers of capital and technology, the market concentration of cathode materials is high and the competition pattern of the industry is good. In 2021, China's cathode materials CR3 and Cr6 accounted for 50% and 80% respectively. The first echelon of China's sales volume were beiteri, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) . Dongguan Kaijin has performed well in recent years, and the industry pattern has a trend of evolution from "three most small" to "four most small".
Natural and artificial graphite have their own advantages, and the introduction of silicon-based materials is accelerated
In China's cathode material shipments in 2021, artificial graphite and natural graphite accounted for 84% and 14% respectively. Natural graphite is superior in price, and there is still market space in affordable consumer batteries. In the future, the energy storage market is expected to bring large-scale application opportunities for natural graphite; Artificial graphite has good cycle performance and high energy density. Before the large-scale application of new negative electrode materials, graphite negative electrode materials will still occupy a dominant position, and the permeability is expected to continue to improve. At this stage, under the measurement dimension of diversified performance indicators, in the face of the market demand for cost reduction and energy storage parity of new energy vehicles, continuous process improvement and effective cost control will become the core competitiveness of enterprises. In the long run, with the increasing demand for energy density, the specific capacity advantage of silicon-based materials will be more prominent, and the R & D and introduction of silicon carbon negative electrode will be accelerated.
Mainstream manufacturers actively layout "integration", and graphitization technology is expected to accelerate iteration
At present, China's graphitization capacity is concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Affected by factors such as dual control of energy consumption and the Winter Olympic Games, the supply shortage of graphitization is intensified, and the production and sales of negative electrode enterprises are limited. In order to ensure supply and reduce costs, negative electrode enterprises have "hand in hand" to speed up the integrated construction of layout. Considering that the stricter review and approval will affect the progress of project investment and construction, and it will still take about half a year to complete the capacity climb after the graphitization project is put into operation, it is expected that the supply of graphitization will remain in short supply in the next year. At present, the traditional graphitization production technology represented by Acheson furnace and internal heat series furnace is still at a low level, which is far from meeting the requirements of industrial production. Manufacturers pursue the technical upgrading of graphitization through furnace type transformation and process innovation. Box and continuous graphitization are expected to lead the technical development.
Investment analysis opinion: the acceleration of global electrification drives the continuous growth of the demand for lithium battery cathode, and the industry leaders accelerate the industrial integration layout and graphitization technology iteration, so as to further thicken the competitive barriers and further optimize the industry structure; Mainstream enterprises accelerate the layout of new materials, which is expected to gain a first mover advantage in the commercialization of silicon carbon anode. We are optimistic about leading manufacturers with both process and integrated layout advantages. We suggest to pay attention to: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , beiteri, Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Liaoning Fu-An Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603315) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) .
Risk tip: the global sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the transmission pressure of raw material price rise is lower than expected, and the construction of industrial integration is lower than expected.
