Precious metals: geopolitical crisis & inflation pressure has not subsided, and hawkish remarks by senior officials of the Federal Reserve have exacerbated gold price fluctuations. Gold: ① nominal interest rate: Recently, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and other voting committees continued to release hawkish signals. The 10Y US bond interest rate rose to + 7bp to 2.9% again, and the US dollar index stood above 100. The gold disk volatility intensified but remained resilient as a whole. In addition, the poor performance of the equity market enhanced the relative investment value of gold; ② Inflation expectation: geopolitical uncertainty and inflation pressure show no signs of abating. At present, crude oil is in the game between monetary tightening expectation and real supply shortage, and the price fluctuates at a high level. Implicit inflation expectation during the week was + 9bp to 2.98%, and the real interest rate was – 2bp to – 0.08%. Considering the global logistics block caused by the epidemic and the rising financial costs of the global supply chain with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the supply side LED inflation pressure may support the gold price to continue the medium and long-term upward channel. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , etc.
Base metal: the logistics is improved and the metal is returned to the warehouse. The short-term pressure on commodity prices is limited before the interest rate increase. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the IMF lowered the global economic growth rate, the Federal Reserve continued to release the signal of substantial interest rate increase in a comprehensive way during the week, and the bulk commodities led by crude oil generally fell; ② On the supply side, due to community protests, one fifth of Peru’s copper mines are facing the risk of shutdown. Rising energy costs and demand concerns have led many mining enterprises to lower their production and marketing targets for 20222023; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper inventory was Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) tons, up from 21200 tons last week. Among them, China’s social inventory decreased by 11200 tons and LME inventory increased by 27100 tons. The logistics & resumption of work in the Yangtze River Delta continued to be good. According to SMM research, the weekly operating rate of China’s major copper rod enterprises rose by 4.65% to 55.58%, and the copper social warehouse fell by 11200 tons to 108800 tons. In the next two weeks, the downstream demand is expected to continue to repair and will usher in the peak order season. The recovery & destocking logic supports the relatively strong performance of copper prices. Be vigilant against the pressure of interest rate hikes and the rapid rise of the United States on copper prices. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of cost: the price of pre baked anode in the week was the same as last week, the price of alumina and power coal increased, and the profit level of single ton electrolytic aluminum (self owned power plant) fell by 4 yuan / ton to 3482 yuan / ton in the week; ② In terms of supply: due to the reduction of production in the early stage and the basic recovery of production capacity, the rate of supply resumption in China slowed down this week. The total amount of new resumption + production this week is about 150000 tons to 40.65 million tons; ③ In terms of demand & Inventory: on Wednesday, the major exchanges removed 27400 tons to 909400 tons, including 22000 tons to 586000 tons for LME and 39000 tons to 296000 tons for SHFE. From 37000 tons to 1061500 tons, China’s social inventory went to the warehouse for the first time since the outbreak fermentation. Transportation problems are the main reason for the current decline in aluminum inventory. This week, aluminum processing in East China weakened due to the epidemic, the epidemic in South China and Henan Province eased, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots picked up, and there has been a shortage of goods in Gongyi, Henan Province. Although it is difficult for aluminum consumption to rebound sharply before the end of the epidemic, the backlog of orders in the early stage will make the downstream show retaliatory resumption of work and procurement after the epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , China nonferrous metals mining, Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) ., Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , etc.
Energy metals: the demand transmission of raw material price rise is poor, and the demand of automobile enterprises is expected to be gradually repaired. (1) Lithium: during the week, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate fell by 5000 yuan / ton to 475400 yuan / ton, and battery grade lithium hydroxide (micro powder) fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 502300 yuan / ton. The terminal demand for complete vehicles in Shanghai began to be repaired, the price rise of Australian miners raised the cost pressure of spodumene lithium salt, the supply chain maintained a low inventory state, and the price of lithium salt fell slightly during the week. Most of the lithium extraction from Qinghai Salt Lake in China is to implement the orders of old customers, and the spot circulation is less. The shipments of several major lithium miners in Australia in the first quarter were less than expected. Considering that many Western Australian miners raised the shipment quotation of spodumene in the second quarter, the spot price of lithium salt in China will face the cost support brought by the price increase of Australian mines in the future. At present, the “lithium ore lithium salt battery cell” link of China’s lithium salt industry chain is less affected by the epidemic, and the overall shipment is limited; (2) Nickel: this week, SHFE nickel rose 4% to 238580 yuan / ton, and nickel sulfate rose 1.69% to 51000 yuan / ton. The price of nickel remained high, the price of pure nickel and nickel sulfate increased upside down to 10200 yuan / ton, the cost pressure increased, and the output of nickel sulfate was restrained. The price of raw materials is high, the downstream ternary precursor market is also facing weak demand and upward pressure on costs, the industrial chain continues to be in a stalemate game state, and the trading atmosphere is weak; (3) Cobalt: this week, cobalt sulfate fell 0.85% to 116500 yuan / ton, and the CIF of cobalt intermediate products rose 0.18% to 35.45 US dollars / pound. Affected by the epidemic situation and weather in cobalt resource countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, the arrival of raw materials in Hong Kong was delayed, which exacerbated the shortage of raw material supply, and the cost supported the high price of cobalt. In terms of demand, due to the rising price of raw materials and poor downstream demand, the profit margin of cobalt sulfate processing fell by 14300 yuan / ton to -3900 yuan / ton this week. The manufacturers are on the edge of loss and their overall production enthusiasm is low. At present, the outsourcing of cobalt sulfate supply in some regions is difficult, adding to the pressure on the cost of smelters, the willingness of nickel sulfate to continue to make profits and deliver goods is small, the terminal industry is still weak, the market transaction is deadlocked, and the price of cobalt sulfate is deadlocked and declining during the week. It is suggested to focus on the following: ‘ Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials(Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , etc.
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
