Key investment points
Thermal coal: this week (April 15-april 22), the closing price of Qinhuangdao Port rebounded periodically due to the Daqin Line accident. The 22nd daily closed at 1173 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.35%. At present, the transportation capacity of Daqin line is basically restored, and it is estimated that the accident will affect the transportation capacity of about 5 million tons. During this period, the speed of replenishment of storage at the port will be affected to a certain extent Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) 5500 Shanxi excellent mixing warehouse raised the price to close at 1335 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of - 3.61%, and the annual price center increased by 14.10% compared with last year. The inventory of downstream power plants continues to be replenished. Thermal coal has obvious off-season characteristics, and attention is paid to the supply and release speed.
Metallurgical coal: the price of metallurgical coal was flat this week. The port's main coking coal 22 daily closed at 3350 yuan / ton, the price of imported coking coal rose by 0.00% weekly, and the import price difference remained at 130 yuan / ton. De inventory of ports and terminals. The price of Shanxi injection coal was the same as last week, closing at 2050 yuan / ton. Downstream maintenance to the warehouse. On the demand side, the price of secondary coke produced in Linfen closed at 3680 yuan / ton on the 22nd, up 5.75% in the week, and the coke oven operating rate was 77%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the previous week. The coke inventory of coking plant and port decreased, and the coke inventory of steel plant continued to decline. The steel price closed at 5138 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.45% this week, and the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 76.59%, down 2.57 percentage points from last week. Meng Wei, deputy director of the Political Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission and spokesman of the national development and Reform Commission, said on April 19 that the national crude steel output will be reduced by nearly 30 million tons year-on-year in 2021, and the reduction of national crude steel output will continue in 2022. The goal is to ensure the year-on-year decline of national crude steel output in 2022. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the national crude steel output will reach 1.033 billion tons in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 3%; Disturbed by factors such as the Olympic Games and the epidemic, China's crude steel output reached 243 million tons in the first quarter of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%. According to the annual level control and the level control from the second quarter to the fourth quarter (growth rate of - 2.68%), the demand space affecting coking coal is about 15 million tons. Assuming that 480 million tons of coking coal are produced and 50 million tons are imported in the whole year (a year-on-year decrease of 20 million tons), it is estimated that coking coal will be in surplus only when the growth rate of crude steel production in 2022 is less than - 5%.
Overseas markets: the Russian Ukrainian war led to the reconstruction of the global coal trade pattern and the differentiation of China's imported coal structure. After the escalation of geopolitical friction, countries have conducted a series of games in the field of energy, which has a far-reaching impact on broad-spectrum energy. In this context, the trend of reconstruction of global coal trade pattern is almost irreversible. After the change of local trade pattern at this stage, the increase of overseas coal price is significantly higher than that of China, and the amount of imported coal showed a differentiation trend in March. According to the General Administration of customs, from January to March 2022, a total of 17.812 million tons of thermal coal were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 103386 million tons, a decrease of 36.73%; The total import of lignite was 19.803 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3617 million tons, a decrease of 27.1%; A total of 122599 million tons of coking coal were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 8.94%; The cumulative import of anthracite coal was 1.939 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%.
Equity view: the coal sector fell 9.6% this week, with a significant adjustment compared with last week. The decline was mainly driven by the impact of the epidemic exceeding expectations, resulting in a decline in market risk appetite. From the fundamental point of view, different coal types show obvious differentiation. Power coal is characterized by off-season, and metallurgical coal is relatively stable. At present, the supply is structurally tight. Under the caliber of the association, the cumulative coal output increased by only 6% from January to March. During this period, only 8 provinces showed positive growth. In addition to Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Guizhou also contributed to the main increment. Considering that Xinjiang and Guizhou are relatively far away from the main production areas and have limited impact on coastal consumption areas, the current supply guarantee pressure still exists. In the process of reshaping the global coal trade pattern or under the new pattern, overseas coal prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. The contraction of imported coal volume can form a certain support for China's coal prices, and Chinese coal enterprises are expected to maintain a high boom. At present, the performance of each company in the first quarter exceeded market expectations, and the dynamic valuation of the annualized calculation sector is still low. It is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, the financing of bond issuers has improved. In terms of the secondary market, the interest margin is relatively low at this stage (equivalent to that before the Yongmei incident), but the quantile of low-grade interest margin is differentiated from that of medium and high-grade. Strong qualified subjects can consider looking for space in the long term, and the sinking strategy still needs to be cautious.
Risk warning: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Overseas coal prices fell sharply; Other disturbance factors.
